To those who wish to write off TD2, please read

[Valkhorn]

I know there are a lot of people on this board who have repeatedly said many times that TD2 is dead in the water, an open wave, or is never going to make it. I'm not trying to wishcast, or to wish tropical storms on people, however the NHC is still keeping advisories on it, convection is still persisting, and as far as I can tell it's not gone yet.

If there's one thing I notice, it is that most of those who wish to write off TD2 are also the same people who thought TD1 (now Alex) would never make it into a tropical storm or even form. I know there are a lot of you out there, and there were a lot of people who busted on any Alex forecast. As far as I can tell, there was no one on this board who guessed the intensity accurately with Alex, and there were even several people who thought - even after it became a hurricane - that we should just write the storm off of the books since it looked like it wouldn't make landfall.

Alex did not make landfall. HOWEVER, despite this hurricane conditions were felt across many in the Outer Banks of NC today. There was significant damage, as well as lots of flooding, and wind gusts of up to 120mph in one spot. Even one spot apparantly recieved sustained hurricane force winds for 90 minutes.

Having said that, I hope those that do not take forecasting these things seriously, and those that wish to write off everything that doesn't go with their ideas of some superstorm that they wishcast, realize that it is not over until it is over with tropical systems.

How many times have we seen systems that are all but gone (Claudette, Lili, Isidore, Andrew) re-fire, and re-intensify unexpectedly? In fact even Isabel was touted by some on this very board as a system that would be a fish even before it became a hurricane.

I'm not saying that TD2 will become Bonnie, that's all in the air. On the other hand, there are professional mets on this board, and there are ameteurs, as well as people who do not forecast anything for a living. All I ask is people give each other just a little more respect, and respectfully bow out of saying you know better than some of the pro mets just because you disagree with them.

Hurricane season is just beginning, and it isn't over until it's over.

I'm going to climb off of my soapbox now, but I hope this drives a point home to some on this board - and you know who you are.

[Brent]

Just one question...

Did you correctly predict the strength of Alex? To my knowledge, NO ONE here or anywhere else did. No professionals, not the NHC, TWC or anyone else. We would have thought they were crazy in the head had they. I didn't expect Alex to become a hurricane until last night and didn't expect it to top 75-80 mph winds. I think everyone was taken back by this storm.

[stormie_skies]

I think that was part of his point .....

[Brent]

Hehe, yeah.

Long day.

[Rainband]

I said 60 or 65 mph. Can I have Ranch with my Crow!!!

[Valkhorn]

Did you correctly predict the strength of Alex?

Nope. And, yes, that's part of my point Actually the only person I know who nailed it was JB. Even I didn't believe him, but he turned out to be spot on.

My point is basically that it's not over until it's over, and nothing is 100% for certain with anything in weather.

[Derek Ortt]

alex did make a direct hit and WILL be counted as such in the record books, just as emily was. The second cat 2 hit in 2 years for the region

[Valkhorn]

alex did make a direct hit and WILL be counted as such in the record books, just as emily was. The second cat 2 hit in 2 years for the region

Could you cite where it says that? If I can recall correctly only the eyewall hit Hatteras. Hatteras did not recieve a landfall because it never experienced inside-of-the-eye conditions.

[NorthGaWeather]

The eywall barely touched the outer banks. I wouldn't call that a direct hit.

[Derek Ortt]

A hit is defined as coming within i radius of max wind on the west side and 2 for the east. Emily counts as a direct hit on the outer banks as a cat 3 storm and has been recorded as such (Lawrence, 1993... for the reference)

[Scott_inVA]

Just one question...

Did you correctly predict the strength of Alex? To my knowledge, NO ONE here or anywhere else did. No professionals, not the NHC, TWC or anyone else.

In the WeatherCenter Updates email I undercooked Alex, forecasting a brief (~18-24 hrs) Cat-1 with no landfall.

While seeing negligible sustained Cat 2 winds over any landmass Iwasn't surprised at Cat 1 status but did raise eyebrows when he went to a 2.

Oh well.

[KatDaddy]

Being in an eyewall IS a direct hit in my books and that occurred at Cape Hatteras.

[Scott_inVA]

This subject is of great interest to me. I have used for my reference in defining landfall:

Accuracy of United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecasts
in the Atlantic Basin (1976-2000)
Mark D. Powell and Sim D. Aberson
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida

In fact, two years ago I discussed this subject with one of the authors who cite this snip from the report:

Definitions of landfall error

Landfall forecast errors depend on the framework for verification. Landfall is defined as the time and location at which the storm center crosses the coastline based on NHC records, though destructive effects may occur several hours before and after the landfall time and extend several hundred kilometers from the landfall point. Observed landfall positions should be accurate to within reconnaissance requirement specifications
of ±11 km (OFCM 1999). Accuracy of observed landfall times is estimated to be ±0.5 h.

The snip doesn't do justice to the full body of HRD's report but that was a highlight used for reference sent to me in 02 (I do have the full report).

I certainly may be wrong but it is apparent to me the center of Alex did at no time cross any landmass. Not picking a fight just clarifying my thinking behind why this is not scored as a landfall.

Scott

[Stormsfury]

Did you correctly predict the strength of Alex?

Nope. And, yes, that's part of my point Actually the only person I know who nailed it was JB. Even I didn't believe him, but he turned out to be spot on.

My point is basically that it's not over until it's over, and nothing is 100% for certain with anything in weather.

Actually, he was more concerned about the other system in the GOM and wrote off what became Alex ...

[SwampDawg]

Just let Alex be a lesson that you can never under estimate mother nature and what she is capable of doing. No, Alex did not make landfall, but tell that to everyone who sustained damage during his brief brush with the coast. They would probably tell you that doesn't matter. I've been through many Hurricanes living here on the coast of Louisiana and know to take each one serious. Thanks.....and everyone have a safe 2004 season. I'm afraid that it has just begun.

http://www.kmrc1430.com

[ColdFront77]

Jeff Morrow said that it didn't make landfall, although it certainly looked like it did.

There seems to be a gray area between a landfalling and a non-landfalling tropical cyclone...

[Thunder44]

Did you correctly predict the strength of Alex?

Nope. And, yes, that's part of my point Actually the only person I know who nailed it was JB. Even I didn't believe him, but he turned out to be spot on.

My point is basically that it's not over until it's over, and nothing is 100% for certain with anything in weather.

Actually, he was more concerned about the other system in the GOM and wrote off what became Alex ...

JB never wrote off the system that became Alex. He thought it could be tropical storm with 50mph - 60mph winds to the North Carolina coast. It wasn't until Monday he thought that this could become a 90mph to 100mph hurricane.

[Hyperstorm]

Great discussion! Derek is right. The system made a DIRECT hit to NC and will be put in the record books that way. This is EXACTLY the same situation with Fabian from last year.

In fact read the Tropical Cyclone Report from the NHC:

"A large mid-tropospheric trough nearing the east coast of the United States provided a more northward steering flow, and Fabian turned north-northwestward to northward with increasing forward speed. Fabian targeted Bermuda, and struck that island with an intensity close to 100 kt. The eastern eyewall of the hurricane moved over Bermuda around 2000 UTC on 5 September. Observers on the western end of the island reported a brief interlude of blue sky and winds decreasing to 50-60 kt at various times between 1945 and 2115 UTC, which indicates that they were in the eastern fringes of Fabian's eye. The center of Fabian did not make landfall. However, since the eyewall passed over Bermuda, the hurricane made a direct hit on that island."

There's the proof and there's more...The closest approach to Bermuda was 20-30 miles, but it was still classified as a direct hit. Just think about this system which came a rather scary 10 miles off Hatteras.

A direct hit indeed...

[soonertwister]

Nice catch, Hyperstorm. Looks like it should go into the books as a hit then.

[Brent]

It WAS a direct hit, BUT, the eye did NOT make landfall. The NW eyewall DID, but not the CENTER of it.