Amazing statistic

[EDR1222]

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall along Florida's east coast in the past 39 years! Betsey ( 1965 ) Andrew ( 1992 ). Pretty unbelievable!

With the east coast troughs setting up yet again, could we make it 40?

Never say never cause it only takes one, but definately an amazing stat given the history of hurricanes along our coastline through the early part of the century. Where were the troughs in the 20's, 30's and 40's?

[Windspeed]

Interestingly, Andrew occurred in a year when there was a trough off the East Coast and strong westerlies for a good portion of the season. In fact, a trough existed off the East Coast association with a vigorous ULL about 500 miles SE of Bermuda as Tropical Storm Andrew crossed the central Atlantic. Andrew's circulation battled with strong southwesterly vertical shear and was losing--being weakened and pulled north--only to quickly regenerate when the trough split and pulled to the north as the Bermuda High rebounded eastward from the Southeast U.S.; and, of course, the rest is history:

<i>Between the 17th and 20th of August, the tropical storm passed south of the center of high pressure area over the eastern Atlantic. Steering currents carried Andrew closer to a strong upper-level low pressure system centered about 500 n mi to the east-southeast of Bermuda and to a trough that extended southward from the low for a few hundered miles. These currents gradulally changed and Andrew decelerated on a course that became north-westerly. This change in heading spared the Lesser Antilles from an encounter with Andrew. The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimate maxium wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occured.</i>

<i>Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unint reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably. Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speed near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb.</i>

<i>Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in a water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough that retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped soutward to a postion just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The assocated steering flow over the toprical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified.</i>

[WXBUFFJIM]

Here's the amazing thing. We had category 5 andrew in 1992. After Andrew retired, there was a replacement name 6 years year in 1998, which was Alex. In 1998, Alex was a tropical storm in the Tropical Atlantic. 6 years later on August 3, 2004, Hurricane Alex makes a very close call/glancing blow on Cape Hatteras.

The bottom line is after Andrew retired, Alex took it's place. Pretty amazing isn't it?

Jim

[ColdFront77]

Jim, why is it that amazing?

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[The Dark Knight]

Coldfront77 said, "Jim, why is it that amazing? "
I agree.....

[HurricaneBill]

Well, think about it. Andrew was the replacement name for Allen. Alex replaced Andrew.

Also, Alicia was replaced by Allison. Allison has been replaced by Andrea. Texas will probably get a bit wary as to where Andrea will go to in 2007.

[WXBUFFJIM]

I won't say that the names prior to Alex are amazing. It was just worth pointing out because before we had the name Alex, there was Andrew, and then Allen, which had the reputation to being very powerful entities. It's a good thing Alex wasn't any worse over a much bigger area along the Mid Atlantic coast earlier today. Today's hurricane versus Isabel were two totally different animals.

First of all today's hurricane was much smaller in size. It was just strengthening from a storm to a cat 2 hurricane. With Isabel, cat 5 status for over 35 hours combined with a much larger size and the angle of approach with the coast made all the difference relative to wave height and surge.


Finally tides were relatively low as Alex approached the outer banks. Isabel came in during high tide. So needless to say, we lucked out big time today despite some of the sound side flooding and strong wind gusts.

Jim

[Stephanie]

You're looking at the trend in the names right Jim?

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yup!!! Basically. Oh well, it's been a long day. When you sleep for 3 hours in a 48 hour period, someone is tired and Alex had alot to do with that. Isabel was even worse with 3-4 days up and little sleep at all. So I guess comparing this to Isabel, we had two completely different animals.

Jim