San Juan AFD changed language from last night

[cycloneye]

A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 51 OR 52 WEST OR ABOUT
950 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE U.S.V.I...CONTINUES TO THE
WEST NORTH WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. TPC ESTIMATES THAT THERE IS A 1011
MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT COULD VERY WELL BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY ONCE THE VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY STARTS COMING
IN. WITH THE NIGHT TIME IMAGERY IT IS HARD TO DISCERN A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS NEAR 22Z DID INDICATE A
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT
WILL APPROACH THE U.S.V.I AND PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...INITIALLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
THEN THE GUIDANCE DOES SOME FLIP FLOPPING ABOUT THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IT IS HARD TO DISCERN IF THE MAIN WAVE
ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL AND THIS ACTIVE WAVE MUST BE
CLOSELY MONITORED...ESPECIALLY AS SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

Last nights discussion they were downplaying the event but this morning they are more on line with what is going on.

[Hyperstorm]

I'm not as optimistic with development as I was early yesterday morning, Luis. The system ran into some drier air yesterday which helped diminish its convection and slowly weaken its circulation. Today the system looks more like a tropical wave with major convection refiring, but that's mainly related to the ULL to its northwest. As you know, ULL aid in convection when the systems encounter their SE hot side. UL winds are not too favorable either and the circulation appears to be very weak if there is one. I won't expect NHC to name it a TD at least for today. If they find a LLC it should be very weak, at least that's what it looks like right now. We'll have to see what it does. Probably tomorrow might be something more.

[cycloneye]

There is upper shear in the eastern caribbean now from the SW that may stop the organizing proccess. But if the shear relaxes a little it well may develop however regardless of what happens plenty of rain is instore for the islands of the leeward and windward tommorow and for the VI and PR late thursday into friday.