3:15 PM EDT Special Storm2k Update about Alex,91L and 92L

[cycloneye]

Tropical storm Alex this afternoon continues to move very slowly and in fact it is meaendering in the same area.The winds have increased to 60 mph maximun with higher gusts.Alex has some potential to be more stronger and in a close call I am saying it may become the first hurricane of the 2004 season but for a brief period of time but again that may never occur and Alex stays as a strong tropical storm.The question is how strong the trough inside the US will be to then pick up Alex and move it away from the coast is still pending.The most big effect from Alex will be in the form of some squalls moving inland into the Carolinas and some higher swells but rip currents will be dangerous also.If the storm jogs a little to the west then much more rain (5-10 inches) may fall in the coastal areas but again that may occur if Alex moves closer which it is not doing now.

The strong tropical wave located around 800 miles east of the lesser antilles continues to become better organized this afternoon.A tropical depression may be forming in that area around 11-12n and around 46-47w.It is moving west to westnorthwest between 10-20 mph a bit slower speed than yesterday and because of that reduction in speed the system is organizing more this afternoon.The track to the WNW is the track that I see taking this system meaning that the central to the northern lesser antilles from ST Lucia northward including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later.All interests in the islands should watch the progress of this vigorous wave and follow the instructions of the local managment officials.

A third tropical wave is located in the far eastern atlantic close to the Cape Verde Islands.It has a low pressure embedded with it and it is moving westward between 15-20 mph.It is very early to make a projection about if it will develop into a tropical cyclone and second if it will affect the lesser antilles so for now the best thing to do is watch it in comming days and let's see what transpires.

I had problems to upload this and that is why I posted the update here.Any comments are welcomed.

[yoda]

Good write-up. Any ideas as to where Bonnie will go from there?

[TerryAlly]

The strong tropical wave located around 800 miles east of the lesser antilles continues to become better organized this afternoon ... The track to the WNW is the track that I see taking this system meaning that the central to the northern lesser antilles from ST Lucia northward including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later.

Floater 2 is now focused on this tropical wave and the loop (1345-1915Z) shows a W movement and not a WNW.

Posted this elsewhere on this forum but no one has commented on it as yet.