As mentioned ont the other weather board, there is a major developing east coast trough that may protect the East Coast through the 1st half of August.
The EURO model has been showing this feature fconsistently the last few runs. Check out day 10 - pretty impressive for August.
http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif
Major East Coast Trough?
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Weatherboy1
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sure looks like the US is protected
I've been checking the latest global model runs, in addition to the one you mentioned, and it appears to me that you're right. Both the UKMET and GFS also appear to show a major east coast trough -- and both the invests, 91 and 92, will likely be deflected safely out to sea if this verifies. But this is all a few days down the road, so it's too early to say for sure.
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yoda
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hmmm this will be close... if Eglin AFB discussion is right, and the trough comes in after Day 6... it will be a fight to see who gets to the EC first...
Bonnie (assuming it develops) or the East Coast trough?
Eglin AFB goes with Bonnie...
"Another system is forming out in the Atlantic, over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. It may become Tropical Depression Two later today and if it keeps organizing, will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie. It is forecast to approach the Caribbean and be near Puerto Rico by Thursday. After that, the most likely scenario is that it will curve northward toward the east coast by the weekend. At this point, it does not look likely to be a future threat to reach the Gulf of Mexico."
Bonnie (assuming it develops) or the East Coast trough?
Eglin AFB goes with Bonnie...
"Another system is forming out in the Atlantic, over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. It may become Tropical Depression Two later today and if it keeps organizing, will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie. It is forecast to approach the Caribbean and be near Puerto Rico by Thursday. After that, the most likely scenario is that it will curve northward toward the east coast by the weekend. At this point, it does not look likely to be a future threat to reach the Gulf of Mexico."
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Trader Ron
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