An eye has popped...Hurricane shortly

[Lindaloo]

That is not an eye... nor will it be the eye.

Wrong...it is the beginning of an eye.

Thank you!

[Brent]

Not the slightest mention of an eye in the VORTEX from 11AM...but, as is usual, I'm sure people looking at satellite will argue with trained pilots in the middle of the storm.

Well then what do you think the eye-like feature is?

[wxman57]

I don't know, just because increasing wind shear caused the convection southwest of the center to die off, leaving an exposed center - is THAT an eye? It's certainly the center, but it's "forming" due to lack of convection obscuring it. Not really a true eye, IMO. Here's a new shot with sfc obs. Let me take one with McIdas, too.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex16.gif">

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIdas shot:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex17.gif">

[yoda]

Is it just me, or is the western portion of Alex going away?

[SacrydDreamz]

[quote="wxman57"]I don't know, just because increasing wind shear caused the convection southwest of the center to die off, leaving an exposed center - is THAT an eye? It's certainly the center, but it's "forming" due to lack of convection obscuring it. Not really a true eye, IMO. Here's a new shot with sfc obs. Let me take one with McIdas, too.[quote]

That's been my point all along.... doesn't have much structure if one wants to call it an eye.... and I certainly wouldn't at this point.. kinda like when you see the LLC of a depression because of displaced convection. I haven't seen anything yet to indicate a bonafide eye wall forming.

[Air Force Met]

Well...if we are going to go by the "trained pilots in the middle of the storm"...then there is NO more need to argue about this.


URNT12 KNHC 021704
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/1704Z
B. 31 DEG 39 MIN N
78 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1352 M
D. 45 KT
E. 053 DEG 027 NM
F. 150 DEG 50 KT
G. 062 DEG 013 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 17 C/ 1572 M
J. 19 C/ 1571 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. <b> OPEN SE </b>
M. <b> C20 </b>
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF866 0601A ALEX OB 22
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 1513Z.

Seems that the idea Alex is trying to form an eye and eyewall ahve been verified by the recon.

[HURAKAN]

According to the information above it looks like we are going to see a hurricane tonight but very possibly tomorrow morning.

[Hyperstorm]

I wanted to say a few things about this thread:

1) I never thought the title of this thread would create this much controversy. I should have rephrased it: An eye-like feature popped...Hurricane soon.

2) Although I am not a professional meteorologist and do make mistakes, I don't consider myself an amateur in this area of the tropics. I do know what I talk about from years of monitoring the tropical picture.

3) I don't understand why some people don't use facts to support their ideas. Sentences like "this is not an eye, it will never become one" are just plain weak, I would say.

I never said the "eye" or "hole in the center of circulation" was a permanent feature. I said that it could be obscured by higher cloud tops later on, stating the fact that even if it becomes obscure it can still remain an "eye". I have seen many tropical systems with eyewalls developing and are not yet hurricanes, but very close. I never said that it was already a hurricane, but that it should become one shortly meaning soon. Recon has find an open eyewall on the SE. If it says Open SE, it needs to have an eyewall in the first place. If it has an eye---wall, it needs to have an "eye", thus it wouldn't be called such. Even if it wasn't a true eye, it surely had an eyewall, I said.

I hope this has clarified what many people have stated already. I'm sorry for any confusion it may have caused.

[SacrydDreamz]

I wanted to say a few things about this thread:

1) I never thought the title of this thread would create this much controversy. I should have rephrased it: An eye-like feature popped...Hurricane soon.

2) Although I am not a professional meteorologist and do make mistakes, I don't consider myself an amateur in this area of the tropics. I do know what I talk about from years of monitoring the tropical picture.

3) I don't understand why some people don't use facts to support their ideas. Sentences like "this is not an eye, it will never become one" are just plain weak, I would say.

I never said the "eye" or "hole in the center of circulation" was a permanent feature. I said that it could be obscured by higher cloud tops later on, stating the fact that even if it becomes obscure it can still remain an "eye". I have seen many tropical systems with eyewalls developing and are not yet hurricanes, but very close. I never said that it was already a hurricane, but that it should become one shortly meaning soon. Recon has find an open eyewall on the SE. If it says Open SE, it needs to have an eyewall in the first place. If it has an eye---wall, it needs to have an "eye", thus it wouldn't be called such. Even if it wasn't a true eye, it surely had an eyewall, I said.

I hope this has clarified what many people have stated already. I'm sorry for any confusion it may have caused.

Good post. Controversy is OK, and expected. It is a discussion forum afterall, it would be boring if everyone agreed.

In retrospect I probably should have stated my reasoning for my opinion when I gave my opinion initially. That said I still do not see the feature you pointed to as being the eye forming. The clearing area was displaced from the center of circulation, and then as the western side of Alex warmed and eroded a bit the center did open up and the weak eye wall that formed was not complete. An eye that is open to the SE isn't much of an eye. If I'm not mistaken this clearing, along with the ragged western side filled in fairly quickly as new convection fired... and a new eye wall was formed from this new convection. That's my take, but I could have been hallucinating.... thoughts?

[Air Force Met]

The GHCC coordinates of the area matched with the center as given by recon perfectly. The point this morning was that an eye was forming...not fully developed. An eye that is open to the SE is still an eye...that it why it is put in the L section of the VORTEX. Even if it is ragged...or open...it is still an eye and is classified as such...even if it is not a perfect Gilbert type pinpoint.

As far as it filling in as convection fired...that point was even addressed. That happens all the time on satellite...especially IR shots where the resolution is less than on vis. It was predicted that the eye would fill on with overcast clouds when new convection fired and that is exactly what happened.

The recon reported an eyewall before this new convection fired. But again...the point was the eye was beginning to form. Was the clear area on satellite a pure eye...no. Was it transient and would not be part of the eye at all? No. Did it show, along with radar, that an eyewall was beginning to take shape...yes. Did recon verify was was being said about that feature...yes.

You are not going to get a pure eye presentation on satellite until a storm reaches at least weak cat 2 status...that is when it begins to be distinguished on IR.

However...the definition of an eye is NOT what you see on satellite. That is the layperson's definition. The real definition is an area of reletively calmer winds surrounded by an eyewall...whether that eyewall be partial or full. Satellite has nothing to do with the real definition, it only verifies the existence of the eye.

So...in strictest definition and form...what was seen on vis this morning and radar was the precurser to what was verified by recon this afternoon and evening...and that was an eye.

[azskyman]

Thanks for the enlightenment AF Met! This thread, like tropical weather itself, has a whole lot of energy...and not all going in the same direction.

As long as the challenges don't stay personal, it is a good thing to see all the differing questions and opinions.

[SacrydDreamZzZz]

The GHCC coordinates of the area matched with the center as given by recon perfectly. The point this morning was that an eye was forming...not fully developed. An eye that is open to the SE is still an eye...that it why it is put in the L section of the VORTEX. Even if it is ragged...or open...it is still an eye and is classified as such...even if it is not a perfect Gilbert type pinpoint.

As far as it filling in as convection fired...that point was even addressed. That happens all the time on satellite...especially IR shots where the resolution is less than on vis. It was predicted that the eye would fill on with overcast clouds when new convection fired and that is exactly what happened.

The recon reported an eyewall before this new convection fired. But again...the point was the eye was beginning to form. Was the clear area on satellite a pure eye...no. Was it transient and would not be part of the eye at all? No. Did it show, along with radar, that an eyewall was beginning to take shape...yes. Did recon verify was was being said about that feature...yes.

You are not going to get a pure eye presentation on satellite until a storm reaches at least weak cat 2 status...that is when it begins to be distinguished on IR.

However...the definition of an eye is NOT what you see on satellite. That is the layperson's definition. The real definition is an area of reletively calmer winds surrounded by an eyewall...whether that eyewall be partial or full. Satellite has nothing to do with the real definition, it only verifies the existence of the eye.

So...in strictest definition and form...what was seen on vis this morning and radar was the precurser to what was verified by recon this afternoon and evening...and that was an eye.

The 11am vortex message did not mention an eye, and the debate began at 10:30. The hole that sparked the initial post was the result, IMO, of the western side of Alex warming and degrading beriefly. This is evidenced by the IR image at the time showing the higher clouds eroding away and clear bands spiraling into the center itself.... past of this is shown on the McIdas shot. This hole rotated into the center. The building of the eye wall was happening nearly simultaneously with the clear area rotating in, thus the open eye wall in the later Votex. Had this hole opened over the center of circulation I wouldn't argue the point, but at the time when the first post was made the hole was displaced from the center of circulation....

[King6]

Now looks like a mouth than an eye!!!
Alex, The Big Bang of 2004 hurricane season!