91L might not develop after all...

[Hyperstorm]

at least not until it reaches the Caribbean:



No wonder none of the models forecasted development...Dry air might be too much to handle.

[SacrydDreamz]

Did this require it's own thread?

[Anonymous]

No models predict development????

[Hyperstorm]

I'm sorry, but this is something that nobody has yet posted about. I think that it deserves its own topic. If it were just a repetition or a mere observation, I could have posted as a reply.

[SacrydDreamz]

I'm sorry, but this is something that nobody has yet posted about. I think that it deserves its own topic. If it were just a repetition or a mere observation, I could have posted as a reply.

Here's a thread for starters...
http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=34955

[Hyperstorm]

I was talking about the globals. Sure those predict development as they were initialized with the invest in mind.

[SacrydDreamz]

Here's another...
http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=34963

[CocoaBill]

Did this require it's own thread?

Where should have this been asked? Is there a current topic that it should have fit under?

[SacrydDreamz]

Did this require it's own thread?

Where should have this been asked? Is there a current topic that it should have fit under?

Lol, you're funny This applies to all repeated topics, you didn't get the memo?

Here's a THIRD thread on 91L...

[CocoaBill]

Did this require it's own thread?

Where should have this been asked? Is there a current topic that it should have fit under?

Lol, you're funny This applies to all repeated topics, you didn't get the memo?

Here's a THIRD thread on 91L...

Point granted! I think what may be happening that there are so many postings and replies happening at once, it's hard to keep up with what's what. YIKES! Need a speed reader...........

[Hyperstorm]

Come on, give me a break! This is just the 2nd topic I've made today. I don't think I'm doing anything wrong by posting this separately. I have seen much weirder and basically worthless observations being posted as a separate topic. If you're going to criticize one person, criticize everyone who does it.

[senorpepr]

you didn't get the memo?

LOL... Office Space.

[Hyperstorm]

Ha! If we talk about a person who posts basically everything he sees as a separate topic, I think one person who's posting in this topic deserves the prize. Check out all the topics started by this person from 9:00 am on to about now and tell me who's the one.

[Derecho]

No models predict development????

You need to understand the difference between the storm-specific and global models.

That plot is from the "storm-specific" models. They don't "predict development"....they're a self-fulfilling prophecy, actually.

You have to understand how they're run. They don't spontaneously appear out of a computer when it looks like a storm will develop.

For the BAMD, BAMM, LBAR, A98E, and GFDL, an actual human being sits at a keyboard, types in a location, pressure, wind speed and then those models spit out tracks.

You could "Run" all of those models on absolutely nothing by just putting in random locations in the tropical atlantic where there's nothing at all, and you'd get tracks.

The "global models" simulate the atmosphere of the whole globe based on actual measured weather observations; AFTER a storm forms some of those models have a tropical system manually inserted ("bogussing") but INVESTs and such aren't bogussed in.

The point is the global models all show a very weak or nonexistent system for 91L.

[Hyperstorm]

Boom! Initially it was dry air, yesterday the fast forward motion, today UL winds. What else can I say? I wouldn't look for Bonnie to develop anytime SOON. Possibly in the Western Caribbean IF it survives for that long...or in last circumstances near the Bahamas area-(unlikely scenario).

[Matthew5]

One of us will be eating crow when the recon doe's or doe's not find a LLCC! I believe there is a weak one by obs from the islands showing a southeast,south,northeast, winds in one ob on a satellite, I was looking at out of the west! It appears this system at least in the mid level has reorganized with in the last few hours. I'm going a head in say that this doe's have a weak LLCC in so being so remains a tropical depression. I have my crow ready to go if I'm wrong!

[Hyperstorm]

One of us will be eating crow when the recon doe's or doe's not find a LLCC! I believe there is a weak one by obs from the islands showing a southeast,south,northeast, winds in one ob on a satellite, I was looking at out of the west! It appears this system at least in the mid level has reorganized with in the last few hours. I'm going a head in say that this doe's have a weak LLCC in so being so remains a tropical depression. I have my crow ready to go if I'm wrong!

Actually, I don't think you're totally wrong. I see also, as of late a turning developing since probably the 1am satellite, but I still think this is Mid-Level. That's not to say there could be a VERY and I mean VERY weak and TIGHT LLC, but not enough to be able to sustain itself, especially with the strong winds coming from the south ahead of the system. Reminds me of many tropical systems, just to name one...Mindy from last year... Let's see what happens...

[Derek Ortt]

You wouldnt get a track out of GFDL.

In fact, GFDL involes a vortex shift after spinning up an initial vortex form the GFS fields, then re-inserting the new vortex (which is close to the CI) back into the initial fields at the proper location.

[rainstorm]

Boom! Initially it was dry air, yesterday the fast forward motion, today UL winds. What else can I say? I wouldn't look for Bonnie to develop anytime SOON. Possibly in the Western Caribbean IF it survives for that long...or in last circumstances near the Bahamas area-(unlikely scenario).

thats actually normal for the eastern carib. i cant count how many times shear was supposed to low in the east carib till a low actually got there. it is very rare for a low to be moving 25 mph into the east carib to do anything. also, it really needs to move into the east carib north of 15.

[Nimbus]

The water vapor imagery this morning shows the northern part of 91L being sheared and streaming off to the northeast. There is a ULL feature descending from the mid atlantic towards DR, PR with a boundary of strong west to east shear.

There is no doubt in my mind that 91L is developing further south than the models initially predicted. Possibly some ridging will occur that will allow TD2 to escape south of the worst shear. Its not an ideal environment by any means but this morning it looked as though TD2 was at least temporarily better organized.