095
ABNT20 KNHC 021523
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. COOL WATERS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
11:30 TWO=Includes 91 and 92
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cycloneye
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11:30 TWO=Includes 91 and 92
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Weatherboy1
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lack of convection probably the problem
The overall satellite presentation of 91 has improved dramatically. However, there still isn't any significant, deep convection firing over the center of the wave. I think that's why the TWO isn't worded more strongly, and until we get more storminess -- which could happen at any time, I might add -- I doubt 91 will get upgraded
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hurricanefreak1988
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One quick cautionary note:
1. 91L pulsed down at almost the same exact time yesterday and people were writing off the wave. This is not uncommon with weak systems...the middle of the day is the diurnal minimum. Other than the lack of current deep convection...91L has an excellent presentation in visible imagery.
2. The system has slowed some and is now moving around 17 knots. This will allow it to better organize as it was moving at 22 knots yesterday.
I guess that's 2 notes.
MW
1. 91L pulsed down at almost the same exact time yesterday and people were writing off the wave. This is not uncommon with weak systems...the middle of the day is the diurnal minimum. Other than the lack of current deep convection...91L has an excellent presentation in visible imagery.
2. The system has slowed some and is now moving around 17 knots. This will allow it to better organize as it was moving at 22 knots yesterday.
I guess that's 2 notes.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
yoda wrote:A gulfstream IV jet is schelduled to investigate 91L if nesescary 1800Z tomorrow...
That's Wednesday August 4 is the possible Gulfstream IV flight but remember that this does not fly into the system, it samples the environment around the system to help with forecasting tracking information.
Also remember that the flights do not operate further east than 55W which is where the system is expected to be tomorrow evening.
The recon flights are tentatively schedule for 2pm Wednesday.
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