Looks like a BUSY week ahead

[Windtalker]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 02 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ALEX CENTERED NEAR 31.4N 79.5W...OR ABOUT 80 NM
SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AT 02/0900 UTC WITH NEAR
STATIONARY MOVEMENT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER
ALEX AS CIRRUS OUTFLOW BEGINS TO RADIATE A LITTLE BIT MORE
SYMMETRICALLY. A SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
MOSTLY TO THE SE OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28.5N-32.5N BETWEEN
77W-81W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 19W/20W S OF 18N
WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 13N MOVING W NEAR W 10-15
KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WELL DEFINED TURNING AT THE MID
LEVELS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 OF
LINE 15N19W-8N27W.

TROPICAL WAVE MIDWAY ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N WITH
A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10.5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...BUT WITH THE
RELAXED VERTICAL SHEAR THE CONVECTION IS NOW TO ALL SIDES OF THE
LOW. THE LOW STILL APPEARS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST W OF THE ABOVE WAVE IS TILTED ALONG
8N52W 15N51W 20N49W MOVING WNW 10 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
LOSE ITS IDENTITY WITHIN THE VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND AS
THE WAVE TO THE E IS CATCHING UP. THUS...THERE IS STILL NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING PUSHED TO THE S BY
T.S. ALEX...AND THIS HAS IN TURN HAS ACCELERATED THE MOVEMENT OF
THE WAVE. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N10W AND EMERGES FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR CENTRAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W 10N23W 13N40W 10N45W OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE FOR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH OVER W TEXAS COVERS ALL OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. MID LEVEL TROF
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N92W TO A
SECOND LARGER MID LEVEL LOW INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. THE
TROF APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS THE SECOND LOW DRIFTS W ACROSS
MEXICO. A WELL-DEFINED SFC TROF HAS SPLIT IN TWO SECTIONS...ONE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA ALONG 30N82W-27N86W...AND A SECOND OVER
THE W GULF FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W-27N93W-23N96W-21N98W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
ALONG THE SW GULF COAST S OF 25N W OF 93W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE NW COAST N OF 29N E OF 90W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND THE W ATLC IN RESPONSE TO T.S.
ALEX. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N75W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO OVER
CUBA NEAR 23N80W.

REMAINDER OF W ATLANTIC...
BROAD N FLOW COVERS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ENE TO 32N60W WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 30N.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF ALEX FROM 25N-33N
BETWEEN 61W-75W.

CARIBBEAN...
DRY AIR IS SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. TROF
EXTENDS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS N OF VENEZUELA NE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 30N56W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING NE FLOW AND
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF
20N ACROSS CUBA FROM 80W-83W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG COAST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICO.

CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC...
THE TROF EXTENDING N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO
30N56W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING FROM 22N57W-27N56W-30N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 31N50W TO 25N59W. TO THE
E OF THE TROF IS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N37W COVERING THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 23N FROM 31W-42W. A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS...SO THERE ARE
VERY FEW CLOUDS AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESENT. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRES COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N FROM AFRICA
TO 80W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC...
CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N38W. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND
GUINEA-BISSAU IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVE. DEEP ELY
FLOW EXTENDS W OF THIS AREA ACROSS THE TROPICS...GENERALLY S OF
15N. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT W OF
35W...WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW ALONG 42W/43W.

$$
WALLACE