Early signs of wrapping?

[Stormchaser16]

The system, at least to my eye, seems to be trying to organize a little better in the last few hours. I have noted that the multiple vortices to the N have weakend a little bit, allowing the main one to try and take over. Also some indications that colder cloud tops are trying to advance north towards the center can be noted on IR channel 4. Outflow also looks to be improving slightly this afternoon with an explosion of thunderstorms/showers over Central Florida associated with afternoon heating and the combined outflow of Alex. One vortice well to the north of the system, did actually come onshore and has fired tstorms over northern Sc and NC. Any comments on what could be occuring here are welcomed, these are just some observations that I have noted. I could be wrong though.

[Stormchaser16]

BUMP

It appears as though this is most likely the case, Derek has backed me up in another post mentioning this, the vortices to the north have weakened, and the center that the NHC used for its advisory seems to be taking over under the northern edge of the convection. Outflow/inflow looks collectively better this afternoon.

[DerekOrtt]

Yeah,

Its one of the first rules that is learned, never trust the Gulf Stream. Many disorganized systems (like Bertha, 1996) went from pitiful to monsters just crossing this narrow area. Now, we have this thing just sitting there

[Stormchaser16]

Exactly Derek....... im becoming increasingly concerned especially with the recent organization trend with Alex that if it is not picked up by the front by later tonight, then we may have a bigger problem to contend with. However ATT I am still forecasting that the front will pick Alex up and curve it NE starting to occur later tonight into tommorow. I have not yet seen guidance that indicates otherwise.

[rainstorm]

we had alex rain already!!

[Rieyeuxs]

What are the chances that the front does not? I thought that was fairly well assured... Just curious

[DerekOrtt]

Still even if that occurs, there are 2 problems.

1. This still has to affect NC. A slower motion just means a stronger storm

2. This may affect Canada. If this goes, they may get another Juan

[Stormchaser16]

That is true Derek, the implications of this stalling for awhile here could definately mean more trouble down the road, I am becoming icnreasingly worried about the effects on the OBX.

[Stormsfury]

Still even if that occurs, there are 2 problems.

1. This still has to affect NC. A slower motion just means a stronger storm

2. This may affect Canada. If this goes, they may get another Juan

Well, the SST's aren't as warm as they were during Juan ... but I understand what you mean ... IF that scenario occurs, it would more likely be a very strong extratropical cyclone.

And as for the organization of Alex ... yes, it does look a bit better in the last couple of hours ... we're entering a window that a small s/w ridge is poking on top of the system before SW winds aloft begin to impact the system, but as for that front .. if it misses it, oh boy ...

SF

[wxman57]

No, I don't see any wrapping of anything. Here's a good shot with 3 ships circling the poorly-defined center. The center remains detached and well north of a diminishing area of convection:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex8.gif">

[Dan]

the slow motion has be worried too. The cold front which is supposed to push Alex northeast is pretty much dying out over my frontyard in the north carolina mountains. I'm afraid areas like Charleston and Myrtle Beach may have a real threat on their hands. BTW, latest ETA model calls for a landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach and a slow crawl inland over the Pee Dee Region of South Carolina.

[Stormchaser16]

I disagree wxman........ that center that you have overlayed there is diving down towards a very solid area of convection, supported much by doppler radars from points along the Se coastline showing good inflow. Animate a visible loop and you will see that defined center trying to dive down into the convection as a window of favorable upper level winds comes into play.

[wxman57]

I disagree wxman........ that center that you have overlayed there is diving down towards a very solid area of convection, supported much by doppler radars from points along the Se coastline showing good inflow. Animate a visible loop and you will see that defined center trying to dive down into the convection as a window of favorable upper level winds comes into play.

Don't see that, Stormchaser. I do see a band of showers moving south down the SC coast. High-res McIdas loops show no LLC down south. Ship reports indicate the LLC is up north around 32N. Pressures are lowest at 32.5N now, well north of the convection. Of course, that doesn't mean that an LLC couldn't form down south toward the heavier convection. But the shear doesn't appear to have let up yet. Remember with Claudette last year that it had 2-3 small vortices rotating around a large ring. Eventually the shear dropped off, and one center moved up under the convection and it became a hurricane. In this case, there may not be much of a lower-shear window.

[DerekOrtt]

The recon fixes have been consistently near 31.5N. This still does have multiple vorticies.

I did look at an IR loop, we do have outflow improving significantly on the SW side and it appears to be spreading to the NW side as well

[Stormchaser16]

I dunno still.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

To me, I see some storms trying to fire on the eastern side of the main LLC now, it does appear that the LLC is diving closer to the convection. And along the northern side it appears like some clouds are trying to drag north towards the center...... I guess we will just have to wait and see

[Stormchaser16]

Derek taking a look at that Vis loop that i just showed, it appears as though one main LLC is attempting to take over

[ColdFront77]

That is true Derek, the implications of this stalling for awhile here could definately mean more trouble down the road, I am becoming icnreasingly worried about the effects on the OBX.

Yesterday it was, "if it stalls then there is more of a chance it will move out to sea" which didn't make sense to me; (notice I didn't say too much sense).

Today we have, "if it stalls (which it has) we are more concerned on what may happen.

My observation yesterday of the cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms moving southwestward over Alabama and Mississippi and temperatures behind
and ahead of the front about the same has led to the stalling and appearance, anyway, of the frontal bounday weakening.

Even the northern portion of the front isn't going anywhere fast, not even at a moderate speed.

[wxman57]

Here's a new image. I can clearly make out 3 small vortices rotating around to the north of the convection. Note the ship with the lowest pressure in the area - well north of any squalls.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex10.gif">

[Stormchaser16]

But..... isnt that only because we dont have any readings for the LLC closest to the convection?

On this image though, i can clearly see the smaller vortices but to me it looks as those are even rotating around the one closest to the convection, which is signalling to me that the closer one is trying to slowly become the main center.