INVEST 91L is up......

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Derecho
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INVEST 91L is up......

#1 Postby Derecho » Sun Aug 01, 2004 1:36 am

At NRL...
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Aquawind
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2004 4:27 am

No surprise..it has a chance and plenty of time..The models may not be picking up on it but they sure are on the wave behind it this morning..

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Good bet for TD2 from the CV this week.. 8-)
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:20 am

For entertainment purposes, GFS put 91L in the bahamas in about 2 weeks... So we can pretty much discount the threat to the Bahamas from this system :lol: However, It gives you an Idea of how long we have to watch it before it could become a threat.

Image
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#4 Postby Tip » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:33 am

Steve Lyons just said that 91L actually is stronger than the TD.
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:51 am

Tip wrote:Steve Lyons just said that 91L actually is stronger than the TD.


:eek:

Convection kinda down right now..no biggie..it has or is seperating from the ITCZ as it is expanding in area..should be interesting..

This is a great zoom loop of the Wave and whats coming off the coast. 8-)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html
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#6 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:02 am

Looks interesting. Gotta a LONG time to watch it though.
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looking less healthy today?

#7 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:14 am

I'm not sure if it's just because it's early in the central Atlantic or not, but 91 looks less organized to me this morning than it did yesterday. Maybe things will improve later on, but it appears some SAL-type air and/or easterly shear may have put the kibosh on this thing. We'll see.

On the other hand, as others have pointed out, the models are jumping all over some kind of development with the wave behind it. Yesterday, the GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS were all showing some kind of surface low tracking WNW across the Atlantic. None were forecasting a recurvature scenario, so IF something develops, we MAY have our first long-track CV system of the year.
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2004 10:43 am

Nice visable zoom loop of 91L today..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html
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