UKMET for second run in a row jumps on e-atl and joins GFS

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cycloneye
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UKMET for second run in a row jumps on e-atl and joins GFS

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:10 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.2N 24.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 31.07.2004 9.2N 24.6W WEAK

00UTC 01.08.2004 8.9N 29.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 01.08.2004 9.8N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.08.2004 10.6N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.08.2004 12.0N 32.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.08.2004 13.6N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.08.2004 14.5N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.08.2004 15.6N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.08.2004 16.4N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.08.2004 17.2N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.08.2004 17.3N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

Very interesting that UKMET is showing something at the eastern atlantic and now GFS is not a loner anymore.
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:17 pm

true, that is very interesting. But at what strength is the TS? I can't find that out on there...
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:19 pm

According to this model it would be a weak Tropical Storm but of course it is too far in time to say that definitly it will even be a TD but only a low pressure moving west thru the atlantic but with more model runs from UKMET and GFS we will know more.
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:26 pm

The fact that the UKMET is indeed backing up the idea that the GFS has been touting for several runs is definately news. It's no guarentee...but it's the first time it's happened with a wave out there this year.

MW
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#5 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:27 pm

That's good! I would like to see a TS sometime soon!! :D :D
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 30, 2004 6:25 pm

yoda wrote:That's good! I would like to see a TS sometime soon!! :D :D


Not too fast from the east atlantic because still there is sal around although compared with the past few weeks it has faded away some making conditions gradually more favorable in that part of the atlantic.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 30, 2004 6:36 pm

From the NWS San Juan Discussion this afternoon:


GLOBAL MODELS STILL LIKE FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF
TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX EXITING AFRICA NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MOVE IT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
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#8 Postby The_Cycloman_PR » Fri Jul 30, 2004 6:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:From the NWS San Juan Discussion this afternoon:


GLOBAL MODELS STILL LIKE FOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF
TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX EXITING AFRICA NEXT 24 HOURS...AND MOVE IT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.



Could this be the beginings of the active phase for the East Atlantic and speed up the CV season?? August is about to start...Hmmm...we'll see!!
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#9 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 30, 2004 9:15 pm

YAY!

We're actually still a couple of weeks from the CV season really heating up. I like to think of August 15th as the start.
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#10 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 30, 2004 9:53 pm

I think that in about 3-4 days thats the wave thats going to get its act together.
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#11 Postby Aquawind » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:22 pm

Nice View of things to come..

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... T042121130

Might be a active early August.. 8-)
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#12 Postby Derecho » Sun Aug 01, 2004 1:41 am

You'll note that what's depicted on most of the global models CV-development wise is the wave barely offshore Senegal, NOT 91L which is already beyond 30W.

For example, the 0Z Aug. 1 UKMET text product is clearly not the 91L wave, but begins much further east....

The storm that actually develops on the 0Z GFS is not 91L either, which is barely depicted on the model, but the system just coming off Senegal..
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#13 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 01, 2004 4:11 am

Nice blob exiting today/tonight..convection north of 20 even...yeah still dry to the north..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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