99L outta here in 30 hrs

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Tip
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99L outta here in 30 hrs

#1 Postby Tip » Fri Jul 30, 2004 12:58 pm

12z ETA shows 99L running out of room quickly.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030s.gif
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yoda
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 12:59 pm

ETA does not do well with tropical systems... so I don't believe that model at all!

Hopefully I am right in stating that.. someone correct me if I am not! :D
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#3 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:00 pm

Yes you are correct, because from what i hear as well the ETA model is just useless with tropical systems.
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:10 pm

If you use the ETA, you are doomed to fail while forecasting a TC
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#5 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:12 pm

True about the ETA and tropical systems, but I've noticed with this system , it handle it better than others so far, in development.
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#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:00 pm

Hmm......
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caneman

#7 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:07 pm

I tend to agree with the ETA in this case. SInce I've been tracking this system it has been on a course for JAcksonville and with it's current speed, I don't see why it won't go there. IMHO, the models that take it to carolnas are wrong. Indeed Georgia on North may get majority of the rain but seems to be on a clear course for JAx to me.
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:15 pm

look at any WV loop. This is an obvious Carolina threat
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caneman

#9 Postby caneman » Fri Jul 30, 2004 3:39 pm

Derick I always repsect you opinion but as weak as this, and I might add that without strong enough winds, it doesn't look like it will get classified. This think is just himming along WNW. What is going to make it turn?
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#10 Postby Tip » Fri Jul 30, 2004 4:07 pm

Check oot the 300mil streamlines roaring out of the NE. This may have something to do with the storm trajectory. I'm not sure if these winds contribute, I'll leave that to the experts.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_vect_300.html
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#11 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Jul 30, 2004 4:50 pm

I agree...
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