Where is 90L center???

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

Where is 90L center???

#1 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:07 am

Image

Is it under the convection just north of Cuba or is it under the circulation in the east central Gulf? I can't tell. If there is no center where is the center likley to form?
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#2 Postby OtherHD » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:09 am

Looks to be in the east central gulf...still broad and diffuse.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#3 Postby Steve » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:12 am

I've got it near 25.11N, 84.19W creeping west ever so slowly. If you go to GOES 12 and zoom, you'll seen an inverted "U" cloud moving up toward the LLC.

Steve
0 likes   

User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

#4 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:12 am

somewhere between 85-90 west and near 25 north

large circulation... and a strong circulation... it still has a chance...
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#5 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:15 am

I looked at the infrared loop and it seems there is circulation under the convection. I'm confused.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

kevin

#6 Postby kevin » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:17 am

Visible is how you determine llc.
0 likes   

User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

#7 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:18 am

there maybe some sort of smal vortex spining around in there... however, you have to look closely at the LARGE area in the east central gulf spinning... that is the true low level center... that is your storm if the convection can re-fire over it later... any spin in the convetion area near cuba is not the true low level center... th big broad area is the one to watch... it is heading west or west northwest... clloser to the coastline....
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#8 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:19 am

It's near 25.5 / 85.2. Very broad though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#9 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:33 am

I looked at the....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

and didnt like the GFDL.... How accurate is that? Should I go to Walmart and get some batteries and candles?? lol... I know I am jumping the gun, but Id like the be prepared, and not get the leftovers from the mobs at Walmart..
0 likes   

User avatar
vacanechaser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1461
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Portsmouth, Va
Contact:

#10 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:37 am

YankeeGirl wrote:I looked at the....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

and didnt like the GFDL.... How accurate is that? Should I go to Walmart and get some batteries and candles?? lol... I know I am jumping the gun, but Id like the be prepared, and not get the leftovers from the mobs at Walmart..


you can probably throw those models out... loks like the center is much further north than the models indicate there... i would not get to excited about it just yet... i would however start thinking about geting ready just in case... you dont want to wait till the last minute then you cant get the stuff you need... you should have a lot of that stuff on hand at the beginning of the season... that way, you dont have to spend all that money at once to be prepared... just a thought...
0 likes   
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Derecho
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:15 pm

#11 Postby Derecho » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:38 am

That GFDL run is pretty old, and the intensity at landfall in Houston on the GFDL was a terrifying....23 kts......
0 likes   

User avatar
Yankeegirl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3417
Age: 49
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 11:59 pm
Location: Cy-Fair, Northwest Houston
Contact:

#12 Postby Yankeegirl » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:44 am

lol.. I am just covering my bases.. I am leaving next week for vacation, and I dont want a tree falling on my house when Im gone! lol.. Im just trying to get an early heads up, just in case.. and I know Im in the right place to get it! I love this place! lol..
0 likes   

OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#13 Postby OtherHD » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:46 am

Derecho wrote:That GFDL run is pretty old, and the intensity at landfall in Houston on the GFDL was a terrifying....23 kts......


Would be bad news for us if it verified. The LAST thing this area needs is a repeat of disGrace. :eek:
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 92 guests