disturbance statement (nwhhc)

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Derek Ortt

disturbance statement (nwhhc)

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:45 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/tds.html


as most of you know, I do not release these unless there is a better than 60% chance of a system becoming a TC and I think that this is alreeady a 30KT TD
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:47 am

Hey Derek, couple questions for ya...

What's a TC?

and 30 kts.. isn't that 40 mph?
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#3 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:49 am

Great discussion. I have a feeling the NHC feels the same way, but are just waiting for recon to confirm it.
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#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:50 am

TC =tropical cyclone. It's what we use at RSMAS when referring to a cyclone and the abbreviation I use when writing papers.

30KT is 35 m.p.h.
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#5 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:52 am

Yeah...I think it is a depression too. I would say there is a 95% chance of having a TD by the 21z advisory.
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#6 Postby vacanechaser » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:54 am

HEY YODA.... IF YOU WANT A GOOD CONVERSION TABLE FROM KTS TO MPH, GO TO http://www.hurricanetrack.com ..

IT IS ON THE RIGHT HAND COLUMN... ITS JAVA BASED CONVERSION SCALE.. VERY COOL...
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#7 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:54 am

Ah... thanks Derek!!

P.S. What the chances of this becoming Alex?
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#8 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:56 am

vacanechaser wrote:HEY YODA.... IF YOU WANT A GOOD CONVERSION TABLE FROM KTS TO MPH, GO TO http://www.hurricanetrack.com ..

IT IS ON THE RIGHT HAND COLUMN... ITS JAVA BASED CONVERSION SCALE.. VERY COOL...

Thanks Jesse.. There is also one on our home page here as well
http://www.storm2k.org

Bottom right :-)
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#9 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:58 am

Yoda...I would almost venture out on a limb and say this will be Alex. I give it the same % chances...95%. If it makes TD this afternoon...then I believe we will be dealing with Alex sometime tomorrow.
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#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:59 am

well, I didnt say it has the potential to develop beyond a TD (which would likely be TD 2. As I've said before, 01L was used on Brazil's cane), because it has a poor chance. This should be Alex no later than tomorrow, IMO
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#11 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:59 am

yoda wrote:P.S. What the chances of this becoming Alex?


Pretty high IMO. Nothing's ever certain in weather, but I think it's pretty close to that.
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#12 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:03 am

LOL.. ok. Now the real hard choice is...

1.) Where does this go?

and

2.) What will be its strength?


IMO... winds will be somewhere between 60-80 mph if given a good chance to develop.
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#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:04 am

Dont know yet... keep checking nwhhc for any new info is all I can really say at this time. I'll have more infor after recon and afternoon models.

However, SE East Coast with at least a strong TS is a good bet right now
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#14 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:04 am

I think GA/SC border area, sometime Sunday, with winds b/w 65-75 mph. That's a first guess but I haven't looked at anything yet...and data won't be good until it gets a little better organized and the models know its there.
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#15 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:05 am

yoda wrote:LOL.. ok. Now the real hard choice is...

1.) Where does this go?

and

2.) What will be its strength?


IMO... winds will be somewhere between 60-80 mph if given a good chance to develop.


GA or SC IMO.
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#16 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:06 am

hey thanks guys for all your hard work and effort. I appreciate it immensely. When will we know if it is a TD or a TS? At the 5:30 TWO? Or I heard on TWC after 2 PM?
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#17 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:13 am

yoda wrote:hey thanks guys for all your hard work and effort. I appreciate it immensely. When will we know if it is a TD or a TS? At the 5:30 TWO? Or I heard on TWC after 2 PM?


Assuming it develops this afternoon, the 5:00pm ET advisory. It's possible we might get a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement before then though.
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#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:18 am

you'll get a special package from NHC once recon finds the center, especially if its a storm
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#19 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:20 am

Ah ok. Interesting this is... hard to see the future of this possible storm's direction and wind power it is. Meditate on this, I will. :D
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#20 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:22 am

Also, has there been a 12z model update? You know, the things Cycloneye posts with all the models, and has DSHP and SHIPS on it?
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