Joe B Very Concerned about GOM System

[KatDaddy]

Joe B not hanging to models this morning. He has a very hard time seeing the GOM system move N into Florida. He believes the innocous system will move W into the GOM away from the SE US system where conditions are favorable for rapid development into a strong system. His concerned is a Claudette/Alicia scenario where something close to home undergoes dramatic intensification.

[PTrackerLA]

That's interesting, I wish I could read his whole discussion. How much does he charge by the way?

[Air Force Met]

I have a hard time seeing it going north as well. It's sitting and spinning now with a slow drift to the west...although it looks like it is moving WNW...its not (thats a vortmax rotating around). I think it moves west. It does have a lot of potential for development over the next few days if it can get some tstms. IF (big if) it does get some convection wrapped around it...there is no reason it won't be off to the races. Water temps are 86-88...heat content is good..and winds will be favorable.

[Johnny]

This is the first system I have jumped on this year and I think for very good reason. I'm also leaning towards Joe B's scenario but am a little hesitant to do so because we don't have too much to work with at the present time. I'm not a wishcaster either because I have a vacationed planned down in Galveston August 9th through the 13th! We rented out a beach house down in Galveston back in 2001 and the next day, Tropical Storm Allison blew through while we were down there. Talk about a shocker. As the saying goes, time will tell.

Air Force Met: Nice to see you on here. I look forward to hearing your point of view.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks Johnny. With as many Houstonians that are on here...this could be the Houston club.

[KatDaddy]

Its not recommended to post Joe B's discussion since it is payable. The Storm2k Admins will remove the post out of consideration of Joe B. Is there anyway we can get Joe B's tropical discussion available for Storm2k members since we are a non-profit organization?.......just a thought to ponder.

Back to Joe B discussion:

So my idea is that if it gets to a tropical storm by Saturday night, chances are we have a hurricane threat on the Texas coast Monday or Tuesday, and the chance for a strong one at that.

Wow!

[chadtm80]

Its not recommended to post Joe B's discussion since it is payable. The Storm2k Admins will remove the post out of consideration of Joe B. Is there anyway we can get Joe B's tropical discussion available for Storm2k members since we are a non-profit organization?.......just a thought to ponder.

Back to Joe B discussion:

So my idea is that if it gets to a tropical storm by Saturday night, chances are we have a hurricane threat on the Texas coast Monday or Tuesday, and the chance for a strong one at that.

Wow!

You are correct.. Out of respect and the sites friendship with JB.. Please DO NOT post anything from his pay section.. If you had a product that you sold you would not want me to give it to people for Free

[HouTXmetro]

Add me to the Houston club....

[Guest]

I'd take what Joe B says with a grain of salt, JMHO.

[yoda]

LOL!! So do I MdWx.

[Stormcenter]

I don't think this will be a threat (IF it develops) to any
of the Texas coastline. So you fellow Texans don't get too excited just yet.

[Derecho]

Joe B not hanging to models this morning. He has a very hard time seeing the GOM system move N into Florida. He believes the innocous system will move W into the GOM away from the SE US system where conditions are favorable for rapid development into a strong system. His concerned is a Claudette/Alicia scenario where something close to home undergoes dramatic intensification.

Classic JB is using models and then claiming he isn't. (Plays into the general dislike and fear of models; it makes him look like some sort of cool, free-thinking maverick.)

The "models" aren't showing the GOM system moving into the N Gulf Coast; SOME of the models are, including the favorite whipping boy, the GFS.

However, about half (actually may be more than half at this point) of the models have a Texas/North Mexico scenario for movement.

Oddly, I tend to agree with JB here, but it's not some sort of maverick call of JB boldly standing forth against some sea of model-huggers.

Also his statement yesterday within his amorphous discussion of how he feared 90L getting really strong and tossed around a 115 mph number "There is no objective guidance anywhere that sees such a scenario at this time" is inaccurate.

As I mentioned trackwise there's plenty of objective guidance with the W GOM scenario, and SHIPS had been getting 90L to 70-80 kts by landfall...and SHIPS is certainly objective guidance.

[Derecho]

You are correct.. Out of respect and the sites friendship with JB.. Please DO NOT post anything from his pay section.. If you had a product that you sold you would not want me to give it to people for Free

A single sentence is usually considered "fair use" from a copyright perspective.

Once you get into paraphrasing you're going to have a mess deciding whether something is sufficiently paraphrased.

The problem is you're going to have the JB fan club paraphrasing and spinning stuff, with it being rather unclear what he actually said, and then when what's presented is criticized someone from the fan club will claim the critic didn't really understand JB because they didn't actually read the whole discussion, blah blah blah blah they need to go subscribe, etc.

[mitchell]

That's interesting, I wish I could read his whole discussion. How much does he charge by the way?

$15/month for accuweather pro...which includes JB plus a bunch of other stuff...I don't really use. The daily forecast videos are pretty good...

[Yankeegirl]

Well on the noon news here, they didnt even mentin it... and the chances of rain are at 20% for most of next week... So I guess they arent concerned about it... oh well... Ill have to rely on Storm2K for updates...

[Lindaloo]

I'd take what Joe B says with a grain of salt, JMHO.

Well let's hear your expert analysis. I think JB does a great job!!

[Yankeegirl]

Linda, If Joe B does a great job, then I better go to Walmart and get my gear!!! I just cut the front yard, just in case it decides to rain later.. Im hot... ~whew~