There may never be a tropical system

[CocoaBill]

much uncertainty in the GOM


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2004


...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT ALL...LET ALONE WHERE IT WILL BE AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT IN THE FUTURE..........

[rainstorm]

the gom system seems to have poofed

[The Dark Knight]

Just like 98L.......

[BayouVenteux]

Still plenty of circulation evident on IR, but the convection is getting suppressed and sheared, probably in part by (going out on a limb here) Alex-to-be to the NE. You just can't have 2 developing systems that close together and expect both to flourish.

If they can get some space between them and the GoM system can avoid complete dissapation the next 24-36 hours, then we still may have something to talk about come Sunday. Otherwise, get your forks ready for this one and your tracking charts ready for the other.

[Derecho]

Absolutely NONE of 90Ls problems can be attributed to 99L; the northerly shear was pre-existing and is a much larger scale feature.

Given the IMMENSE time 90L looks to have over water before it hits MX or Texas, and that it indeed does have a circulation of some sort, don't be too quick to write it off...

[BayouVenteux]

Absolutely NONE of 90Ls problems can be attributed to 99L; the northerly shear was pre-existing and is a much larger scale feature.

Understood. Just wondering tho'...if this northerly shear has been present, why were conditions forecast as "favorable" to "somewhat favorable" for development over the past day or so? Was it simply a "path of least regret" type forecast or did the models miss something? Also, what would have to happen happen synoptically over the next 24 to 36 hours to bring this system into a more favorable environment for development?

Thanks in advance for your comments!

[Stormcenter]

Absolutely NONE of 90Ls problems can be attributed to 99L; the northerly shear was pre-existing and is a much larger scale feature.

Given the IMMENSE time 90L looks to have over water before it hits MX or Texas, and that it indeed does have a circulation of some sort, don't be too quick to write it off...

I'm not so sure whatever "MAY" develop in the GOM will head anywhere near Mexico or even Texas. IMO

[FWBHurricane]

Why not? If you look at the satellite picture the system is moving WSW ( or whatever is left of it. ) I think this wont even turn into anything as it heads for the Yucatan Peninsula. It has already poofed pretty much and its heading for land, its chances are getting slimmer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

Is it really moving WSW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Nimbus]

One possible center looks to be near 25 N 89 W. The buoy pressures and winds seem to indicate a low level center with pressure below 1008.

[LA Storm Tracker]

There are reasons that AL90 in the SE GOM is not getting stronger this AM. First, the system is on the outer fringes of a ridge that is anchored in LA. This is providing a northerly wind shear of at least 20 knots over the system. Also, some dry air has filtered in from the north & northeast to collapsing any TS activity that tries to development near its center. The system has a chance as it slowly moves in a general westward direction IF it holds together and makes it to an area in the GOM that is more favorable for development. If it survives today, it may have that chance.

[HURAKAN]

90L hasn't been able to develop convective areas around it center but the pressures continues to decrease by the hour, according to the NHC the pressure around the center is 1009 MB, which for a developing system in the Atlantic is very low. I think as the system slowly drift toward the west the high will begin to protect the system and convective areas should develop allowing the system to become better organized. This is not like 98L, which as sheared apart from a ULL, fortunately here we have a High Pressure System.

[vacanechaser]

Why not? If you look at the satellite picture the system is moving WSW ( or whatever is left of it. ) I think this wont even turn into anything as it heads for the Yucatan Peninsula. It has already poofed pretty much and its heading for land, its chances are getting slimmer.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

sorry... go back to the satellite link and look at it again.. what you are seeing is the convection being blown off to the southwest... the low level center is due west of lake okeechobee...see the broad area of turning to th west... thats the low... not the convection area... it is moving west north west... with the low looking that impressive on ir imagery, it has a chance if it can get further west...

[PTrackerLA]

The gulf system has a large low level circulation already in place and with low pressures if we can get convection to develop today around the center this thing could develop rather quickly IMO. It doesn't look that impressive but I'll be keeping an eye on it. Our NWS seems to think we don't need to worry about it because they are confident it will head east of New Orleans.

[Johnny]

I think a few people here have covered why 90L doesn't look all that great this morning but I'm tellin' ya, that will change over the weekend. Once it gets away from that northerly shear, convection should really start to pop. I'm pretty confident in this scenario. The area it will be drifting into is very relaxed. One thing that I don't have a clue is where it will be going. I think we need to get this thing to organize a bit, then we will have a better idea on where it will go. Very interesting.