If 99L develops where will it go?

[caneman]

I've heard anything from across Florida to the Carolinas. Any thoughts?

[The Dark Knight]

I've heard to the Carolinas.....TWC.......

[caneman]

BAMM and BAMD model plots answer my question. Look like Jacksonville in about 72 hours.

[Anonymous]

Dare I say The Blue Moon Hurricane! LOL LOL

[yoda]

AT THIS TIME, most models take the 99L invest into the GA/SC area... where not many tropical systems have gone in a while. The LBAR takes it into the NOrth Carolina area. SHIPS again is being too aggressive calling for a minimal CAT 1 hurricane in about 96-120 hours. We will have to wait and see what happens over the next 24-48 hours.

[Weatherboy1]

Judging from the latest steering maps, it looks like the Bermuda high is strong enough to keep this thing heading WNW, but not due W. So this doesn't look like a south- or central-FL threat. The problem with model runs on undeveloped -- and "un-reconned" systems is that you don't really know where the center is, or what its recent motion has been. I put more credence in the tropical models when they have at least 12 hours of surface plots, an accurate center location, a few hours of historical motion, etc. So let's wait and see if A) 99 develops and B) what the models say AFTER a center has been located. Then we can decide where it could go. But speaking broadly, anywhere on the SE coast is a potential target.

[yoda]

Correct WeatherBoy1. Anyone from FLA to I'd say about VA should keep an eye on this invest.

[hurricanefreak1988]

IS IT OUR DESTINY?!

Man, what a way that would be to kick off the season, a storm visiting us here in NC

[whereverwx]

IMO, It looks like it will go anywhere from Jacksonville, Fl to Virginia

[Weatherboy1]

Just looking at the overall setup here, I wonder if Invest 99 will end up being like Hurricane Dennis in 1999. Seems like the two areas of disturbed weather are similar in terms of starting point and forecast track. We'll see ...

[Patrick99]

Call me a skeptic, but none of this looks terribly impressive to me. To me it just looks like a bunch of convection on the east side of an upper level low. I'm not convinced it will go anywhere. If the ULL moved away, who's to say the convection won't fizzle out?

[Stormcenter]

Call me a skeptic, but none of this looks terribly impressive to me. To me it just looks like a bunch of convection on the east side of an upper level low. I'm not convinced it will go anywhere. If the ULL moved away, who's to say the convection won't fizzle out?

Hello skeptical.

[Air Force Met]

There's an anticylcone building over the system as we speak. There is also a hint of a weak low level circulation near 25/72. The convection is now occuring under the anticylcone due to sfc convergence and not the upper low and upper level forcing.

So...that's why I don't think it will fizzle. The satellite presentation is too good right now...and I think there is a good chance we will see a TD out of this by tomorrow sometime.

The system in the GOM also has potential. Either one of these have a good chance...at least the best chance of any system so far this season.

[Dan]

Anybody remember Tropical Storm Jerry which formed in 1995 North of the Bahamas? I think this feature is quite similar to that storm. It was a slow mover and it was classiifed as a tropical storm prior to landfall. But that was all irrelevant. The rainfall totals is what made that storm significant.

[Weatherboy1]

Still no clear evidence of a surface center, and I'm guessing the NHC isn't exactly sure where this thing is "centered" because it looks like they ran two sets of tropical models with different start points. My best guess right now using high-res visible imagery is that something may be coming together on the W side of the main convection, around 26N 72W.

My big question is this -- with the ULL moving W and the Bermuda high apparently building to the W in its wake, what's going to allow this thing to come more N than W? Is there another trough or front coming in from the W that will recurve this thing?

[The Dark Knight]

Who knows... Just wait and wait some more....