SE GOM getting better organized?

[Stormcenter]

Well convection is on the increase in the extreme SE GOM off the Fl. Keys. Is this the beginning of what some of models have been predicting?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

I think the GOM system has more potential than the Atlantic, IMO even though it doesn't have an INVEST up yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[KatDaddy]

Here is an excerpt

NOTE ON TROPICS...ETA/UKMET/ECMWF ALL TO A VARYING DEGREE SPIN UP A
WEAK LOW OVER THE GULF AND MOVE IT WEST OR NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TX
OR LA COASTLINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP IT
AN OPEN WAVE AND THAT'S HOW WE WILL HANDLE IT FOR NOW

[KatDaddy]

From Houston-Galveston

MOST OF THE MODELS NOW DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF
FRIDAY AND TRACK IT WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SPLIT IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS: SOME TAKE THE LOW NORTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE GULF
COAST AND SOME TAKE IT WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TX COAST. A MORE
NORTHWARD TREK WOULD DRY OUT SE TX WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. A MORE
WESTERLY TREK WOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FAVOR SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL UP POPS SUN/MON TO CHANCE CATEGORY AND
LEAVE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS.

[EmeraldCoast1]

From NWS forecasters in Pensacola/Mobile this A.M.:

THE ETA AND NOW THE GFS ARE
INSISTENT...AS WELL AS NICELY PHASED...ON SPINNING UP A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OR TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS HAS GONE ON OVER AN INCREASING NUMBER OF RUNS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS AN OPEN EASTERLY WAVE AND NHC DESCRIBES IT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHOSE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT. WE ARE
CONTINUING WITH CURRENT WISDOM OF VIEWING THIS SITUATION WITH A CONSERVATIVE YET CAUTIOUS VISION. STALLED FRONTS DURING HURRICANE SEASON OVER THE GULF ARE A REASON FOR CONCERN AT ANY TIME SURFACE
VORTICITY INCREASES EVEN IN AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. NOT ONLY THIS...BUT THE 300 MB PROG SHOWS AN AREA OF DIVERGENT WEAK FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OFF TX. IF PROPERLY PHASED IN SPACE WITH
THE SURFACE FEATURE...IT WOULD IMPACT THE FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN WEEKEND POPS ESPECIALLY IF THE THING INTENSIFIES. ALL ARE ADVISED TO STAY WITH US ON THIS.

[Air Force Met]

Well...we know we don't have to worry about it getting a sfc circulation...it already has a good low level circulation that is very large in scope. The vis loops this morning show that the system is trying to get more concentrated and the "arms" are trying to be pulled inward.

IF (IF IF IF) it can continue to concentrate over the next 24 hours...this thing has a lot of potential. Upper level winds will be favorable...especially once it starts to move to the west.

IT will be an interesting weekend for the western GOM.

[Portastorm]

An interesting weekend indeed for all of us GOMers!! The Brownsville, TX forecast office has taken note in its mid-morning forecast discussion.

I also noticed the last several shots in the satellite loops should increased banding features and decent circulation.

As you said Air Force Met, all indications/models seem to show this disturbance would be heading into a favorable environment this weekend for intensification and further organization.

[bfez1]

Mets here in New Orleans are already hinting at a possible MS landfall.

[yoda]

Heard that as well Bonnie. Its gonna be a fun and rocky weekend!

[PTrackerLA]

Welcome to the action everybody, it will be an interesting week.

[Yankeegirl]

The local met here last night said North Central Gulf landfall... Too bad.. We need the rain.. lol..

[GalvestonDuck]

The local met here last night said North Central Gulf landfall... Too bad.. We need the rain.. lol..

Shush! Last time someone said that, we got Allison! [/b]

[vbhoutex]

Best guess right now, IF this develops enough to really be steered by upper currents is the N Central GOM, basically from NO Eastward. Texas has an incoming trough which is located about central TX now and will be continuing Eastward and that should steer whatever develops, unless it just sits and does nothing for a few days, to a more Northerly course once it gets(IF) goiing.

[HouTXmetro]

Best guess right now, IF this develops enough to really be steered by upper currents is the N Central GOM, basically from NO Eastward. Texas has an incoming trough which is located about central TX now and will be continuing Eastward and that should steer whatever develops, unless it just sits and does nothing for a few days, to a more Northerly course once it gets(IF) goiing.

I'm just sick and tired of fronts, High pressure, and troughs protecting the upper TX coast from storms!!!!

[Baytown Bug]

Nice swirl in the straits south of FL.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kbyx.shtml

[GalvestonDuck]

Best guess right now, IF this develops enough to really be steered by upper currents is the N Central GOM, basically from NO Eastward. Texas has an incoming trough which is located about central TX now and will be continuing Eastward and that should steer whatever develops, unless it just sits and does nothing for a few days, to a more Northerly course once it gets(IF) goiing.

I'm just sick and tired of fronts, High pressure, and troughs protecting the upper TX coast from storms!!!!

You're kidding, right?

[KatDaddy]

First off baby is home and currently asleep.

I see this system being a E GOM TX threat. I do not like where its positioned for TX.

The latest TAFB shows the possible development toward TX.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl.gif

[Derecho]

The models with a south TX/North MX track are generally the more credible ones.

Given the location it appears to be developing in, what movement is apparent (if there is any, it's SOUTH of west) the fairly quick NW movement into LA doesn't look particularly credible to me.

[LAwxrgal]

Yep, I'm thinking somewhere along the Texas coast. But that's my uneducated, weather noob guess here...and I don't see it developing as a major hurricane or anything here...because there just isn't that much space left between it (right now a weak tropical low) and land 3-4 days out.

But we still have time to watch it...

[vbhoutex]

Derecho are you basing that movement on figuring it won't develop quickly enough to be picked up by the apparently developing trough over central TX?