90L Invest up now for EGOM!!

[caneman]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[tracyswfla]

90L is the one that is right outside my door!

[cycloneye]

Caneman I edited it to post the more smaller link.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

While that blob has impressive thunderstorm convection, the NRL surprises me at how desperate they seem in labeling invests....I would have at least waited a day or two.

[vbhoutex]

I am surprised by the 90L invest also. I presume it is due to the possibility of disruptiopn of operations in the GOM moreso than meaning they think it is going to develop quickly.

[teal61]

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT KEY WEST AND MIAMI VERIFIED A VERY WET TROPICAL
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
QUITE HIGH AT 2.4 TO 2.5 INCHES. K-INDEX VALUE WAS HIGH AT 39.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE INTERESTING WITH REGARD TO CELL MOVEMENT...
SUGGESTING A CYCLONIC CENTER NOW NEAR BIG PINE KEY. NEWLY DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF THERE ARE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NW...WHILE
WEST OF THERE MOTION REMAINS GENERALLY TOWARD THE S OR SW. THIS
CYCLONIC SPIN...HOWEVER...IS ALOFT AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING
WESTWARD. MEANWHILE...SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND PATTERN AT THIS TIME
INDICATES A BROAD ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF THE KEYS.
KEYS SURFACE WINDS HAVE TURNED TO SE NEAR 10 KT OVER UPPER KEYS
AREAS...ARE LIGHT S TO SW OVER LOWER KEYS...BUT AGAIN REMAIN
AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FORECASTS...
INTERMEDIATE ETA RUN (06Z) HAS DISPLACED ITS FORECASTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE...SHOWING A
WEAK LOW SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS BY 8 PM THIS EVENING...WHILE GFS IN
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS SHOWING A WEAK LOW CENTER WEST OF DRY
TORTUGAS IN THE GULF. CURRENT WIND TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE
GFS SOLUTION...BUT THE OVERALL SCENE STILL IS ONE OF A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SE GULF...AND A WET PATTERN OVER
THE KEYS. NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS ANTICIPATED...WITH HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SMALL CLUSTERS
AND LINES ARE FORMING IN THE DEEPER SE TO S FLOW...WHICH COULD BRING
THE ANTICIPATED HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STRAITS INTO THE
KEYS.





SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN GULF WITH WEAK LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS SE
SECTIONS OF THE GULF AND A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW FL
COAST. AT LOW LVLS...850 AND 700 MB...12Z ANALYSIS SHOW TROPICAL
WAVE/TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE SW GULF COAST...NAPLES...STRETCHING SE
INTO THE FL STRAITS.

A look at the visuals this morning seems to show some broad rotation in the vicinity of the Florida keys, and now with the new invest 90L up thing are getting a little more interesting.

[cycloneye]

I am surprised by the 90L invest also. I presume it is due to the possibility of disruptiopn of operations in the GOM moreso than meaning they think it is going to develop quickly.

What operations David in the GOM?

[Derecho]

While that blob has impressive thunderstorm convection, the NRL surprises me at how desperate they seem in labeling invests....I would have at least waited a day or two.

NRL doesn't label invests in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. NHC does. The 90L model run is just up, and those models are specifically run by the NHC.

[vbhoutex]

OOPSS!! MY BAD!!!

I am still surprised by the 90L invest at this time and even more surprised to see it being developed as quickly as the invest develops it.

Luis, I thought NRL was putting up invest for Naval operations. I have been corrected!!!