Tropics 7-28-04- in depth discussion...WATCH OUT GOM!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the active areas tonight starting in the Pacific where we have a typhoon and a hurricane to deal with this evening. Hurricane Darby is centered at near latitude 16.2 north, longitude 124.5 west. Movement is towards the west northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 105 mph with gusts to near 130 mph. Minimum central pressure estimated by satellite is 970 mb. Darby is expected to maintain a steady state if not get a bit stronger for the next 12-18 hours before stronger shear and cooler waters will likely weaken this system. Darby won't threaten any land areas. The only indirect effect will be from some higher swells in Baja California and southern California, but nothing monumental at this time.

Further west into the west Pacific, Typhoon Namtheun has weakened from 110 mph to 95 mph over the past 24 hours. Namtheun is centered near latitude 31.5 north, longitude 140.3 east. Movement is west northwest at 7 mph. Max sustained winds 95 mph with gusts to 115 mph. Areas of southern Japan should prepare for tropical storm force sustained winds with gusts possibly to or over hurricane force over the next 3 days or so.

Meanwhile the Atlantic basin is becoming more active as we have more tropical waves coming off the west African coast and disturbances east of the Bahamas and over Florida as well. Detailing the features tonight, a tropical wave is situated just west of the Cape Verde Islands along 26W S of 22N moving west at nearly 15 mph. This appears to be having a broad center of circulation, which is devoid of any convection at this time. A 1012 mb low is situated northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Another tropical wave is situated about 450 nautical miles east of Barbados moving west at around 15 mph. Once again though this wave has dry air associated with it with limited thunderstorms and the same goes with the ITCZ this evening.

There are other waves in the eastern Caribbean and in Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula with little development anticipated in the near term. However I want to focus my attention on the eastern Gulf where a 1011 mb low is now centered about 120 NM northwest of Tampa Bay associated with an upper trough in the region as well. A frontal boundary is also nearby along the east central Gulf coast. Showers and thunderstorms in widely sctd fashion have developed along and just south of this low and trough axis and hasn't moved much during the day. A strong upper high is centered over the Rio Grande Valley near 29N101W with northeast and easterly flow extending across the Gulf. This storm system in the eastern Gulf definitely needs to be watched for the potential, the potential of tropical development over the next several days as this sytem moves further out into the gulf into more favorable upper level winds. The potential of a depression or a tropical storm is in place across the east central Gulf over the next several days. With little forward motion of this 1011 mb low presently, we'll have plenty of time to closely monitor this system and folks are encouraged to do so along the Gulf coast as we continue throughout the next several days or so.

Jim

[Dave C]

There may be another weak LLC near Key West, I know Steve Lyons mentioned it this eve and there seems to be some rotation in the radar from the Key West area.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Certainly somthing that has a potential to gel into a tropical system west of the Florida coast over the next few days with possible tropical cyclone development as this encounters warm gulf waters and a more favorable conditions aloft with lighter winds. Definitely something to really watch the next couple of days as a depression or the first named storm of the season is indeed a possibility.

Jim

[Rainband]

Time will tell, with the front coming down may be wet from LA east