Any one notice the rotation...

[Typhoon_Willie]

of thunderstorms around South Fla?

[Rainband]

Yes, but I believe it's upper level??

[Typhoon_Willie]

I guess it could be upper level... In any case there will be rain for Fla today!

[Rainband]

I apologze!!

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281739
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU FRI)...LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
FOCUSING ON TAKING A SFC WAVE ACROSS S FL TONIGHT...AND INTO THE SE
GULF THURS...CONTINUING INTO THE CENT GULF FRI. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM
SEEMS TO STEM FROM THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE SE FL COAST...
THE SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS THRU
FRI OVER THE S FA. MODELS DIVERGE ON POPS FOR FRI...WITH THE ETA
FALLING BACK INTO THE CHC RANGE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS LIKELY ALL
AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUE TREND FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR FRI
OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE AREA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST...BEHIND CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF.

.EXTENDED (FRI NGT THRU WED)...FLOW TO BECOME MORE S/SE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER
THE STATE. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE REGIME
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS.
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THURS-SAT. FOR NOW...PLAYING FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE WEAK...
KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 076 089 076 089 / 40 70 50 50
FMY 074 087 074 089 / 50 70 50 60
GIF 075 090 075 090 / 40 70 40 50
SRQ 074 087 074 087 / 40 70 50 60
BKV 073 090 073 090 / 30 70 50 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.......MORALES
LONG TERM........COLSON

[lilbump3000]

My local met here in new orleans had mentioned a circulation close to the flordia coast. Looking at the latest ETA model. Which i know its not really good for tropical systems, but it does show a low pressure area forming in the gulf of the coast of flordia and heading for the mouth of the mississippi river.

[CocoaBill]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2004

........THU NGT...1009-1010 MB SFC LOW PROGD OFF THE SW FL COAST WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW.........

Any chance for this to develop within 48 hours or so???

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well we will have to wait and see! Something to watch though...

[caneman]

Does look to be some spin down around the keys and pressures are knid of low. Wait and see.

[Johnny]

It's the blue moon hurricane!! Run!!!!

[Johnny]

From the National Weather Service in Key West......



.FORECASTS...
A SLOWLY EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE PATTERN DIRECTLY OVER THE KEYS
TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...AND ITS SLOWNESS TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...PORTENDS
A PERIOD THAT MAY FINALLY BRING THE KEYS ITS FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SUMMER RAINFALL EVENT THIS YEAR.

BOTH ETA AND GFS MODELS NOW AGREE ON A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT
THE SURFACE TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE KEYS EARLY THU...MOVING SLOWLY
NW...AND KEEPING THE KEYS WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY DEEP SOUTH WIND
FLOW SURFACE UP TO 20 THSD FT OR MORE. WITH THIS COMES ADDITIONAL
FEEDING OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE KEYS...AND SOME SEMBLANCE
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. ADDED TO THIS...A PATTERN OF
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DIVERGENCE AT HIGH LEVELS (200-250 MB) SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE KEYS REGION TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS PATTERN IS
A RESULT OF AN OBVIOUS DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH WINDS WELL TO THE WEST OF A TUTT LOW NOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
AND PROBABLY SOME SPEED DIVERGENCE AS WELL.

[Stormcenter]

Finally something of interest possibly developing in the GOM.
Thanks for the info.

[Nimbus]

This rotation shows up clearly on the miami radar. It looks like quite a broad shallow area at the moment. The surface pressure drops are very close the entire length of the keys.

[Thunder44]

5:30 TWO says some slow development is possible over the next couple days in the Gulf. Something new to watch!

[caneman]

For entertainment purposes. take a look at this buoy about 100 or so miles West of Ft. Myers/Naples.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42003

[Johnny]

I'm no expert but what do the conditions in the Gulf look like for development? Is it worth watching?

[caneman]

Here Johnny from 5:30 TWO. Good to go.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT
WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

[Yankeegirl]

I will believe it when I see something form... Till then, Im going to enjoy the quiet season.. lol..

[Steve H.]

Sure, he we are again in Florida breeding storms for other areas. Always a bridesmaid, never a bride

[Stormcenter]

Sure, he we are again in Florida breeding storms for other areas. Always a bridesmaid, never a bride

LMAOF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dave C]

I just checked all the buoys near south Florida as well as the buoy in SE Gulf. Very chaotic wind patterns which don't currently indicate LLC although TPC does locate it near the keys. I saw one buoy near Keys with 87deg. water temp...ouch!!! and pressures are falling by the hr. The slow NW movement should give ample time if dev. occurs.