HPC discuses possible tropical disturbance to hit East Coast

yoda · #1 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 8:03 am

AS AN
ADDED SOURCE OF RNFL THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ETA ALSO BRING THE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY E OF THE BAHAMAS... PRIMARILY A MID/UPR LVL FEATURE SO
FAR... TO THE E COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN MODEL IN
PARTICULAR HAS A STRONG AFFINITY FOR NR COASTAL TROPICAL AND NON
TROPICAL DEVLOPMENT IN THE GULFMEX AND ATLC COAST. GIVEN
ETA/CANADIAN VERIFICATION HISTORY OF SYSTEMS OF
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN... THE WEAKER GFS SEEMS THE BETTER
OPTION. HAVE OPTED ON MORNING UPDATE TO BRING IN AN INVERTED
TROF/ERLY WAVE DEPICTION TO SFC PROGS INTO SE COAST/FL DAY 3.
CONSULT TPC/NHC DISCUSSIONS REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SFC
DEVELOPMENT.

Any thoughts? I know we are talking about something POSSIBLE here, but could this happen as HPC suggests? This is from today's prelim discussion issued at 8:45 AM...

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 8:05 am

Oops that topic should read AFFECT, not HIT East Coast.

boca · #3 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 8:20 am

Where on the East coast do they think it will head west toward Florida or Northwest towards the Carolinas/Virginia?

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 8:36 am

It's has also been discussed in the NHC 5:30 TWO. Just speculation at this point.

yoda · #5 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 9:03 am

True, it is just speculation at this point. We will have to wait and see. conditions look to become favorable after the next 48 hours.

Derecho · #6 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 9:05 am

Re-read the discussion carefully.

HPC is actually saying "Because the ETA and Canadian are such crappy tropical models that develop tropical systems that don't actually exist, were not going to show a tropical system on our maps, just a wave."

boca · #7 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 9:10 am

Thanks Derecho for shedding the light,sometimes I skim and not actually read.

yoda · #8 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 9:16 am

Ah i see Derecho... but this is interesting nonetheless. This is, IMO, the first tropical wave on their maps this tropical season. It will be interesting to see what happens to this system as it MAY enter a more favorable environment to develop in 48+ hours... but we will see.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 10:11 am

At least one model shows a low feature in the SE GOM and increased moisture impacting the SE by 7/30. Also note the SE surface flow over the SE due to high pressure off the middle Atlantic coast. Anything that were to develop in the Bahamas would clearly move NW and affect the SE.

The AVN version clearly shows a sfc low pressure (at least at 850mb) in the SE GOM by 7/30:

[/img]

yoda · #10 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 10:13 am

Oh. Couldn't it hit the MA though?

#11 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 10:48 am

Was looking at the models when I was half asleeep eariler..one of them showed a strong tropical system off the Carolinas om 16 days. Something to look forward to :roll:

yoda · #12 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 10:54 am

do you remember which GFS run that was at all? :roll:

LOL, like its going to come true anyway... :lol:

yoda · #13 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 12:58 pm

UPDATED DISCUSSION (AFTERNOON as of 1:55 PM)

POTENTIAL TROPICAL OR HYBRID WAVE COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF
RNFL INTO FL AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST. THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ETA
ALSO BRING THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY E OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE E COAST
DURING THE WEEKEND.CANADIAN MODEL IN PARTICULAR HAS A STRONG
AFFINITY FOR NR COASTAL TROPICAL AND NON TROPICAL DEVLOPMENT IN
THE GULFMEX AND ATLC COAST. GIVEN ETA/CANADIAN VERIFICATION
HISTORY OF SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN...THE WEAKER GFS
CONTS TO BE THE BETTER OPTION. HPC PROGS DEPICT AN INVERTED
TROF/ERLY WAVE INTO SE COAST/FL DAY 3 SAT. SEE TPC/NHC DISCUSSIONS
REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL FOR SFC DEVELOPMENT.

and...

...ATLC TROPICS...
ONE AREA OF CURRENT ACTIVITY IS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING CONVECTION OFF THE ERN BAHAMAS THAT MOST MODELS BRING
NWWD AS AN ERLY WAVE INTO FL AND THE SOUTHEAST WITH ETA/CANADIAN
THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH SFC AND MID LEVEL DEVELOPMENT. THIS
AFFECTS THE SERN SEABOARD DAY 3 SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPED BY THESE MODELS IN THE ERN GLF MEX WHICH IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. SECOND AREA IS MODEL GENERATED DEVELOPMENT BY GFS AND
ECMWF OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST BY THU. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEEN CARRYING STRONG DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR TWO DAYS NOW
WITH VERY GOOD ENSEMBLE MEAN CONCURRMENT. LATEST GFS RUNS CONT TO
TURN THIS SYSTEM NWD INTO FORECAST MID LEVEL COLL ALONG 50W-60W.
HPC WILL CARRY THIS SYSTEM AS AN ERLY WAVE AT THIS TIME IN THE
ERN-CENTRAL TROP ATLC FOR DAY 7 WED. SEE NHC
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.

So.. we finally getting some action in the tropics! Here we go... :lol:

HPC discuses possible tropical disturbance to hit East Coast

HPC discuses possible tropical disturbance to hit East Coast

hmm

Who is online