No Need to Write Off 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[donsutherland1]

A look back at the 21 years in which the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) averaged above -0.500 and less than +0.500 during the May-June through September-October periods finds that 6 years saw their first named storm develop July 22 or later. Moreover, these were not necessarily quiet years in terms of tropical activity.

The years follow:

1969: 5 tropical storms; 12 hurricanes
1978: 6 tropical storms; 5 hurricanes
1984: 7 tropical storms; 5 hurricanes*
1990: 6 tropical storms; 8 hurricanes
1998: 4 tropical storms; 10 hurricanes
2000: 6 tropical storms; 8 hurricanes*

* denotes no named storms before August 1

[bahamaswx]

An average of 6 tropical storms; 8 hurricanes.
14 named storms is by no means quiet

On the other hand, looking at the number of major hurricanes between those years, you'd obtain an average around 2.3, which is near normal activity.

Nice research nevertheless.

[jlauderdal]

A look back at the 21 years in which the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) averaged above -0.500 and less than +0.500 during the May-June through September-October periods finds that 6 years saw their first named storm develop July 22 or later. Moreover, these were not necessarily quiet years in terms of tropical activity.

The years follow:

1969: 5 tropical storms; 12 hurricanes
1978: 6 tropical storms; 5 hurricanes
1984: 7 tropical storms; 5 hurricanes*
1990: 6 tropical storms; 8 hurricanes
1998: 4 tropical storms; 10 hurricanes
2000: 6 tropical storms; 8 hurricanes*

* denotes no named storms before August 1

Anyone that would write off the season based on activity or lack of in the typically slow months of June and July would be a fool.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, it is frustrating that we're not on the board yet, but there's no reason to write us off. In fact, we've faced a huge deficit several times since 1998, only to make a furious rally after that. See for yourself:

1998: Down 8-1 in mid-August, the Atlantic goes on a huge tear sparked by Bonnie (who paid a visit to right here in North Carolina), and ends up losing by only one, 15-14.

1999: This was definitely the greatest comeback in recent history for the Atlantic. Down a whopping 10-2 in mid-August, the Atlantic suddenly turns the heat up, takes advantage of the E-Pac's traditional September choke, and goes on a huge 14-4 run the rest of the season. That gave the Atlantic the 16-14 win, and capped off an incredible comeback.

2000: For the third straight year, the Atlantic found themselves down big in August. This time the deficit was 8-2. But once again, the Atlantic rallied, and even held an 18-17 lead in mid-October. But unlike last year, the E-Pac wouldn't be outdone. Two late-season storms put the E-Pac in front 19-18, and that ended up being the final score.

2001: Unlike the three seasons before it, this season was back-and-forth. But there was still a mini-comeback. Down 17-15 going into November, it looked like the season was over. But then came the two most unusual storms of the season. First, it was Noel, who was named a hurricane RIGHT OFF THE BAT! To this day there are doubts whether he was a hurricane or not. And then came the storm that tied the score at 17 (which turned out to be the final score), the unforgettable Olga. I don't think I need to say too much about her, you should know her crazy story

2002: Another season, another deficit. This time it was 9-3, and it was late-August. An active September (including the infamous Kyle, boy was he fun to watch ) brought the Atlantic even with the E-Pac going into October, and the Atlantic even took a 14-13 lead in mid-October. But, like 2000, the E-Pac refused to lose, and dished out 3 late-season storms to win, 16-14.

2003: This year, it was our turn to dominate. I'm happy to say I can't speak of a big deficit here, because we owned the E-Pac the entire year. This was definitely one of the greatest seasons of all time. From Ana to Peter, the action never stopped. It looked like the final score would be 19-16, but 2 storms who didn't know the season was supposed to end on November 30 came along, Odette and Peter. So that made the final score 21-16, and capped off, like I said before, one of the greatest seasons of all time.

So with 2001 and 2003 being the only exceptions, the Atlantic has had to fight its way back every year since 1998. This just goes to show you (to quote Yogi Berra, even though he was a Stankee ): "it ain't over 'til it's over!"

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, great analysis on those seasons hurricanefreak! In a way, it really is a tug-of-war between the two basins to see who gets more storms. It isn't over by a long shot.

[HurricaneBill]

Starting with 1960, here is the numbers for Atlantic and EPAC.

(named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes)

(I'm excluding Central Pacific storms because that's a different basin)

1960
Atlantic: 6/4/2 (Donna is retired)
EPAC: 7/5/0

1961
Atlantic: 10/8/7 (Carla and Hattie are retired)
EPAC: 10/2/0

1962
Atlantic: 5/3/1
EPAC: 6/2/0

1963
Atlantic: 8/7/2 (Flora is retired)
EPAC: 8/4/0

1964
Atlantic: 9/6/6 (Cleo, Dora, and Hilda are retired)
EPAC: 5/1/0

1965
Atlantic: 5/4/1 (Betsy is retired)
EPAC: 10/1/0

1966
Atlantic: 11/7/3 (Inez is retired)
EPAC: 13/7/0

1967
Atlantic: 8/6/1 (Beulah is retired)
EPAC: 16/6/0

1968
Atlantic: 7/4/0
EPAC: 18/6/0

1969
Atlantic: 13/10/5 (Camille is retired)
EPAC: 10/4/0

1970
Atlantic: 7/3/2 (Celia is retired)
EPAC: 18/4/0

1971
Atlantic: 12/5/1
EPAC: 18/12/6

1972
Atlantic: 4/3/0 (Agnes is retired)
EPAC: 12/8/4

1973
Atlantic: 7/4/1
EPAC: 12/7/3

1974
Atlantic: 7/4/2 (Carmen and Fifi are retired)
EPAC: 17/11/3

1975
Atlantic: 8/6/3 (Eloise is retired)
EPAC: 16/8/4

1976
Atlantic: 8/6/2
EPAC: 14/8/5

1977
Atlantic: 6/5/1 (Anita is retired)
EPAC: 8/4/0

1978
Atlantic: 11/5/2
EPAC: 18/13/6 (Fico is retired)

1979
Atlantic: 8/5/2 (David and Frederic are retired)
EPAC: 10/6/4

1980
Atlantic: 11/9/2 (Allen is retired)
EPAC: 14/7/3

1981
Atlantic: 11/7/3
EPAC: 15/8/1

1982
Atlantic: 5/2/1
EPAC: 19/11/5

1983
Atlantic: 4/3/1 (Alicia is retired)
EPAC: 21/12/8

1984
Atlantic: 12/5/1
EPAC: 18/12/6

1985
Atlantic: 11/7/3 (Elena and Gloria are retired)
EPAC: 22/12/8

1986
Atlantic: 6/4/0
EPAC: 17/9/3

1987
Atlantic: 6/3/1
EPAC: 18/9/4 (Knut is retired)

1988
Atlantic: 11/5/3 (Gilbert and Joan are retired)
EPAC: 13/6/2 (Iva is retired)

1989
Atlantic: 11/7/2 (Hugo is retired)
EPAC: 17/9/4

1990
Atlantic: 14/8/1 (Diana and Klaus are retired)
EPAC: 20/16/6

1991
Atlantic: 7/3/2 (Bob is retired)
EPAC: 14/10/5 (Fefa is retired)

1992
Atlantic: 6/4/1 (Andrew is retired)
EPAC: 24/14/8 (EPAC uses its entire list from Agatha to Zeke)

1993
Atlantic: 8/4/1
EPAC: 14/10/8

1994
Atlantic: 7/3/0
EPAC: 17/9/5

1995
Atlantic: 19/11/5 (Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne are retired)
EPAC: 10/7/3 (Ismael is retired)

1996
Atlantic: 13/9/6 (Cesar, Fran, and Hortense are retired)
EPAC: 8/5/2

1997
Atlantic: 7/3/1
EPAC: 17/9/7 (Pauline is retired)

1998
Atlantic: 14/10/3 (Georges and Mitch are retired)
EPAC: 13/9/6

1999
Atlantic: 12/8/5 (Floyd and Lenny are retired)
EPAC: 9/6/2

2000
Atlantic: 14/8/3 (Keith is retired)
EPAC: 17/6/2

2001
Atlantic: 15/9/4 (Allison, Iris, and Michelle are retired)
EPAC: 15/8/2 (Adolph is retired)

2002
Atlantic: 12/4/2 (Isidore and Lili are retired)
EPAC: 12/6/4 (Kenna is retired)

2003
Atlantic: 16/7/3 (Fabian, Isabel, and Juan are retired)
EPAC: 16/7/0