The following quick ENSO "tests" pertaining to active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons (1950-2003) also hint that the 2004 season will see 10 more more named storms:
Inactive Seasons:
• ENSO R1+2 Temperature: 22.75°C or above:
8/10 (80%) had 8 or fewer named storms
Average: 7.3 named storms
Most: 14 named storms
Least: 4 named storms
2004: No
• MEI: 0.600 or above
13/14 (93%) had 8 or fewer named storms
Average: 6.7 named storms
Most: 12 named storms
Least: 4 named storms
2004: No
Active Seasons:
• ENSO R1+2 Temperature: Below 21.00° C:
11/14 (79%) had 10 or more named storms
Average: 11.2 named storms
Most: 15 named storms
Least: 7 named storms
2004: No
• MEI: Below 0.500
25/35 (71%) had 10 or more named storms
Average: 11.0 named storms
Most: 19 named storms
Least: 6 named storms
2004: Yes
No Need to Write Off 2004 Hurricane Season: Another Tidbit
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