Darby Advisories
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- HURAKAN
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TD 5-E forms, Darby looks to be in the near future
Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on July 26, 2004
Visible satellite images show that the tropical disturbance well to the south of Cabo San Lucas has a reasonably well-defined low-level circulation...and deep convective banding is also becoming more evident over the western portion of the system. Thus advisories are being initiated at this time. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters and both water vapor imagery and global model guidance indicate that the vertical shear will remain low.
Strengthening is forecast in close agreement with ships.
Because the center is not yet well defined...there is a fair amount of scatter in location estimates. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/11...which is close to the climatological mean for The Basin. The track forecast assumes that a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone will dominate the steering. The NHC track is fairly close to that shown by the NCEP GFS model.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/2100z 12.5n 114.8w 30 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 12.9n 116.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 13.5n 118.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 14.0n 120.7w 45 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 14.5n 122.6w 50 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 15.0n 126.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 15.5n 130.0w 60 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 16.0n 133.5w 60 kt
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- The Dark Knight
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Well, I'm not feeling so bad even though it's now 5-0. I looked at the archives from the last few years, and I noticed we've been down as much as 8-2, and came back to either lose by 1 at season's end or actually WIN. And considering that the E-pac usually quiets down when we heat up, it's definitely not over. Expect a HUGE August rally
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- Hurricanehink
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- lilbump3000
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- cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Darby forms at EPAC
The fourth storm of the EPAC season has formed tonight.But no threat to land as it is moving away from the Mexican coast.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- Hurricanehink
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EPAC storms can be just as dangerous as Atlantic storms.
Destructive EPAC storms:
1959 Category 5 hurricane struck Mexico killing 1000
1967 Category 1 Hurricane Katrina maintains hurricane status into Arizona.
1976 Category 4 Hurricane Liza struck La Paz, Mexico causing a dam to collapse and kill 630.
1976 Category 4 Hurricane Madeline struck as a Category 4. Not much info on the internet about Madeline.
1995 Category 1 Hurricane Ismael kills 100 in Mexico.
1997 Hurricane Pauline makes landfall on Acapulco as a Category 4. Up to 400 killed.
2002 Hurricane Kenna strikes Mexico as a Category 4, killing 4 people.
Destructive EPAC storms:
1959 Category 5 hurricane struck Mexico killing 1000
1967 Category 1 Hurricane Katrina maintains hurricane status into Arizona.
1976 Category 4 Hurricane Liza struck La Paz, Mexico causing a dam to collapse and kill 630.
1976 Category 4 Hurricane Madeline struck as a Category 4. Not much info on the internet about Madeline.
1995 Category 1 Hurricane Ismael kills 100 in Mexico.
1997 Hurricane Pauline makes landfall on Acapulco as a Category 4. Up to 400 killed.
2002 Hurricane Kenna strikes Mexico as a Category 4, killing 4 people.
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- cycloneye
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Darby almost a hurricane=Will it be a major cane?
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM DARBY (EP052004) ON 20040727 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040727 1200 040728 0000 040728 1200 040729 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 118.1W 13.7N 120.4W 13.9N 122.6W 13.9N 124.6W
BAMM 13.2N 118.1W 14.2N 120.1W 14.7N 121.9W 15.0N 123.8W
LBAR 13.2N 118.1W 13.9N 120.6W 14.8N 123.2W 15.7N 126.1W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040729 1200 040730 1200 040731 1200 040801 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 126.7W 13.2N 130.6W 13.5N 134.7W 14.0N 139.1W
BAMM 15.0N 126.0W 15.4N 130.6W 16.4N 135.8W 17.5N 142.1W
LBAR 16.5N 129.0W 18.2N 134.5W 20.6N 139.2W 15.6N 141.6W
SHIP 78KTS 73KTS 63KTS 52KTS
DSHP 78KTS 73KTS 63KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 118.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 115.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 113.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 70NM
Will it become a major hurricane is the pending question.I think it may do so as long it mantains in warm waters and shear is minimal.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM DARBY (EP052004) ON 20040727 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040727 1200 040728 0000 040728 1200 040729 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 118.1W 13.7N 120.4W 13.9N 122.6W 13.9N 124.6W
BAMM 13.2N 118.1W 14.2N 120.1W 14.7N 121.9W 15.0N 123.8W
LBAR 13.2N 118.1W 13.9N 120.6W 14.8N 123.2W 15.7N 126.1W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040729 1200 040730 1200 040731 1200 040801 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 126.7W 13.2N 130.6W 13.5N 134.7W 14.0N 139.1W
BAMM 15.0N 126.0W 15.4N 130.6W 16.4N 135.8W 17.5N 142.1W
LBAR 16.5N 129.0W 18.2N 134.5W 20.6N 139.2W 15.6N 141.6W
SHIP 78KTS 73KTS 63KTS 52KTS
DSHP 78KTS 73KTS 63KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 118.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 115.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 113.1W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 70NM
Will it become a major hurricane is the pending question.I think it may do so as long it mantains in warm waters and shear is minimal.
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Yes!.........
If the center is under that CDO to the right of the feeder band, she should take off. After 2-3 days water temps should put a stop to her. Like that typhoon in the west pac. which is SE of Japan now, the excellant outflow conditions really spark quick development.
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Floydbuster's Darby forecast...
This is tough. The NHC takes it up to 100 mph. One point for me was that last night in Teamspeak I DID say "I think Darby may get up over 100 mph." Since then the NHC has forecast 85 kts... or 100 mph. I am leaning more towards 105 mph at a peak. So I forecast 100-120 mph. I have 20 mph difference. So, in order to make it fair, I will forecast 105 mph....
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