Whats the little spin..

[corpusbreeze]

off the west coast of the Yucatan at around 19n 91w? The ull has fled west and washed out leaving a lot of moisture behind. This wave wont give up.

[Stormchaser16]

Looks like some energy from 97L has finally sufficed in the SW GOM, and doesnt appear to be moving too fast off to the NW...... convection is scattered and disorganized but the chances for development here seem to be higher then any shot it had in the Caribbean

[corpusbreeze]

I agree, but feel bad because I stuck the fork in it last night.

[Stormchaser16]

Lol..... could wind up to be a bad move heh
I had the fork stuck in it, but only for the time it remained in the Caribbean, my thoughts were all along that once/if this made it into the GOM then it may have a shot albeit a slim shot.

[cctx]

Climatalogically speaking, isn't this area one of the "hot spots" for potential development at this time of the year?

[corpusbreeze]

Yes it is cctx.

[Derecho]

Climatalogically speaking, isn't this area one of the "hot spots" for potential development at this time of the year?

There really are no "hot spots" in the Gulf of Mexico, depending on how you look at it.

On average, less than one storm a year develops IN the Gulf of Mexico.

However, the popular impression, I get the feeling, is a typical year sees 3-4 storms develop in the Gulf (aided by the fact that 2003 saw an anomalously large number of storms develop within the GOM.)


The overwhelming majority of Gulf landfalls are from systems that are at least TDs before they enter the Gulf.

[Stormchaser16]

So on average 0 storms develop in the GOM per year(hey you said less then one........)

Either way, this wave has always had climatology against it, in the Caribbean, NO storm had ever developed in that area for this time period. The fact of the matter is that it is unlikely that the remnants of 97L will develop into anything, but the odds always favored that IF something developed it would be in the GOM.

[Stormchaser16]

Although, and Derecho correct me if im wrong...

I cannot agree with you that it is less then one a year, just looking at some historical tracks since 1995, most years have had at least a few systems actualyl develop IN the GOM. I mean....... I can see where you are coming from saying that the majority enter the gulf already as a TD or greater, but looking at historical data, it seems that there is at least 1-2 tropical systems developing in the GOM itself.

[rbaker]

i don't see any chance right now esp. with that spin in the sw gulf, wv shows a ull right where you are talking about, and anothe to its north, hardly tropical, so how is this more condusive than when it was over in the w. caribbean?
as far as climotology there has been many June and July storm form in the western gulf.

[corpusbreeze]

Well as far as the current system I think the only thing going against it will be the lack of real estate. I dont see anythig to pull it up north.

[Stormchaser16]

I said more conducive the the western Caribbean..... did your "broad circulation" ever amount to anything? It always had a ULL to its north inhibiting development throughout the Caribbean. As far as climatology goes, this is a more favorable area for it. Case closed.

[rbaker]

storm chaser16, are you habit of saying i told ya so. Your post from the other night said gom was where your "POTENTIAL" was going to be and you wern't going to point fingers if something did not devolop. Are you so hard headed to the fact there was a disturbance down there that had perstisted for days, and as for putting a fork in it in the w caribbean, you say the gom has a better chance, even though there is a ull over top of it, not to the north, south, east or west. Excuse me, there is also one to the north.
I still wondering where you are coming from that because there is weather and lower pressures in the w caribbean, and yes a ull to its north, that it has no chance, but because it has moved to the gom, with two ull on near by, this one has a better chance? When and why. I've noticed your post on other subjects in these forums, and you like to be contradictary. I've lived in Fl for all my 48 years, but that does not make me and expert. Are you willing to eat "crow" if this one does not develop?
Are are you going to say this has nothing to do with 97l and its a separate enitity? Or its moving too fast, too many lows, etc.etc. And one more thing no my broad low did not amount to anything just like 98l didn't amount to anything. Is the name of your game just "I told you so", a guesser, or combination. Regardless, of the above mentioned statements, and your more favorable gom, I never said that gom is unfavorable climitology wise, which the nw caribbean was not either. My point was as I again say, is all "hot spots" can be potential later down the road, but you only want to take claim for the "glory when it is officially a td or above.

[Stormcenter]

storm chaser16, are you habit of saying i told ya so. Your post from the other night said gom was where your "POTENTIAL" was going to be and you wern't going to point fingers if something did not devolop. Are you so hard headed to the fact there was a disturbance down there that had perstisted for days, and as for putting a fork in it in the w caribbean, you say the gom has a better chance, even though there is a ull over top of it, not to the north, south, east or west. Excuse me, there is also one to the north.
I still wondering where you are coming from that because there is weather and lower pressures in the w caribbean, and yes a ull to its north, that it has no chance, but because it has moved to the gom, with two ull on near by, this one has a better chance? When and why. I've noticed your post on other subjects in these forums, and you like to be contradictary. I've lived in Fl for all my 48 years, but that does not make me and expert. Are you willing to eat "crow" if this one does not develop?
Are are you going to say this has nothing to do with 97l and its a separate enitity? Or its moving too fast, too many lows, etc.etc. And one more thing no my broad low did not amount to anything just like 98l didn't amount to anything. Is the name of your game just "I told you so", a guesser, or combination. Regardless, of the above mentioned statements, and your more favorable gom, I never said that gom is unfavorable climitology wise, which the nw caribbean was not either. My point was as I again say, is all "hot spots" can be potential later down the road, but you only want to take claim for the "glory when it is officially a td or above.

Whoa is it getting hot in here or what?

[Rainband]

Thanks for Keeping it civil guys. I know everyone wants a storm. It is very frustrating

[rbaker]

just look at some of his other post, intstead of an observer, he is a forecaster?

[vbhoutex]

Although, and Derecho correct me if im wrong...

I cannot agree with you that it is less then one a year, just looking at some historical tracks since 1995, most years have had at least a few systems actualyl develop IN the GOM. I mean....... I can see where you are coming from saying that the majority enter the gulf already as a TD or greater, but looking at historical data, it seems that there is at least 1-2 tropical systems developing in the GOM itself.

Stormchaser I am obviously not Derecho, but you blew your self out of the water when you stated "just looking at some tracks since 1995". 1995, to say the least was a very busy year and abnormal. The Atlantic basin is and has been moving into a more active phase since before 1995 so that skews the statistics in your favor. However the basin has been in a lull for at least 20 years prior to that. Your "sample" is WAY too small to use in any kind of statistical way to prove your point. Actually it is difficult to develop any viable sample for statistical purposes with Tropicla Cyclones because decent records only go back about one hundred years and any decent statistician will tell you that you need a much larger sample to come up with "norms". it is most unfortunate that we do not have hundreds of years of TC's to fall back on for "norms".

[hurricanedude]

still cant figure out why peeps get so frustrated when a storm doesnt form...I use to be like that until I was in the "DIRECT PATH" of Isabel last year....I lost nearly everything I owned..I guarantee once you lose everything you worked your entire life for, you attitudes will change!! Dont get me wrong, nothing wrong with a good storm...but for the ones actually wishing it will hit your area, well quite honestly...thats a FOOLISH wish...

[rbaker]

didn't know we were looking for "hits" in our particular areas. At least speaking for myself, in live in mobile home, so the first cat 2 or above I'm outta there. I have an RV so I can get out fast, and be sustained in living by "dry camping" if I have too. Pretty much Im a observer, have been a skywarn member in the TPA area for over 10 years. Just went to my renew class back in June. I will say this with certainy, that most Floridians from about Gainesville south (probably 80 pct) have never experienced one, or maybe a sideswipe like ts force winds, but not a Andrew, Hugo, Isabelle, Donna, etc.

[The Dark Knight]

LOL.....