West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
200 PM EST Wednesday Mar 26 2003
. term...
Plenty of clouds to go around this afternoon...mainly of the high
variety. Cumulus streaks setting up nicely across the area...
indicating atmosphere is moistening up a bit at the low levels per
forecast soundings. Still expect very limited coverage in our area
if any at all...despite mesoscale-ETA model depiction of widespread coverage
over the interior. Attention turns to squall line south of
Louisiana and Mississippi ahead of potent short wave which will lead
to a problematic 10 to 18 hour forecast. Models continue to diverge
during this time period with ETA model/meso-ETA bringing the majority of
the energy into the west-central Florida coast overnight tonight with
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. The GFS continues its
subdued version of events despite depicting similar probability of precipitation to that of
the met. Energy this run is confined more to the west-central coast
like the ETA model but real forcing looks too far south...coming in near
the Keys. Feel feedback problems are once again hampering a good
representation of the upcoming events and prefer the ETA model solution at
this point. Still have to deal with the fact that distance speed
tools indicate current squall line in the Gulf could be on our
doorstep by 02z-04z. I believe convection will outrace energy and
reorganize further west. This will bring precipitation into the area more
in line with the ETA model time frame. Plan on going likely probability of precipitation for
tonight along the coast and high end scattered for interior. Will
maintain current likely probability of precipitation for Thursday but indicate a gradual
tapering of the precipitation. Severe potential hinges on the ability to
maintain overnight convection. Latest guidance suggests dewpoints
will recover into the middle 60s by this time frame. ETA model bufr
soundings show instability increasing through the period with convective available potential energy
approaching 2000 which should be sufficient to support storm
maintenance. Main threat appears to be hail with freezing level
hovering at or below 11k feet and 500 mb temperatures at - along with
isolated wind gusts. Just curious if we will see any bad weather??
Thanks for your time
Johnathan
