Back from the dead?!?!?!?!?!?

[Stormcenter]

Is 97L coming back from the dead?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[lilbump3000]

Yes it is coming back and really hasnt been moving all that much the past 24-36 hours. I really thing we need to focus on this one again. Right now it looks like 98L has bit the dust.

[Stormchaser16]

Let's see how it maintains itself throughout the day, now that 98L is weaker and it will lose some of the diffluent flow. If it can maintain convection on its own(the problem it had last time, and failed the test) then it may become a strong enough wave to cross the yucatan and become a player in the GOM.

[caneman]

Does look like the area of concern. Weak low there but look only marginal in term of upper level winds. With the ULL moving West I wonder if it will really hinder things. Here is a nice shot.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

[Dean4Storms]

Actually it looks to me that 97L has become an area of concern. Looks like something might be able to get it's act together south of Central Cuba. The ULL to it's north is actually helping to refire the convection as convergence takes place aloft it could help vent this system until ridging aloft once again takes hold. The TX. and Mexican coasts will eventually see whatever is left of 97L.

[caneman]

yes, I was refering to 97L remnants.

[Kennethb]

When 97 split into 98 they were splitting their energies. They will need to move farther apart or one dissipate so the energies can be focused on one.

[Thunder44]

This morning, Dr. Lyons was more concerned for development with the area just south of Cuba. He says there's an area of weak low pressure there.

[Dean4Storms]

This morning, Dr. Lyons was more concerned for development with the area just south of Cuba. He says there's an area of weak low pressure there.

Yes there is and the convection is deepening and the UL winds are currently favorable.

[wxman57]

What you have south of Cuba this morning is exactly the same situation as when 97L was passing the DR a few days ago. There's a pretty strong upper-level low north of Cuba. The region just south of central to western Cuba is in the right rear entrance region of the jet around the low, creating another convective "hot spot". The convection, itself, is in a region of pretty high wind shear, though there is an upper ridge east of the convection (you'd expect a ridge east of the low).

Models (GFS) are indicating that the upper low north of Cuba will be moving southwest toward the southern Yucatan as a big ridge builds over the Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow. A trof axis would extend NE toward southern Florida by Monday from the southern BoC and another strong ridge builds across the Bahamas south through Cuba. I'd expect thunderstorms to continue east of the Yucatan, though activity may become scattered as the upper low moves southwest. Eventually, heaviest storms shoudl develop inland over the Yucatan and Honduras/Nicaragua with the upper low over the southern BOC/southern Mexico by 24-36hrs.

So chances of development there are pretty low, but any thunderstorms that linger east of the Yucatan would need to be monitored, of course. Mid-level flow across the Gulf will be NE-SW mostly, so chances of anything moving NW into the Gulf are pretty low for the next 3-4 days.

[vbhoutex]

Thanks Chris for an excellent explanation!!

[rbaker]

everyone was ready to write this one off for various reasons, myself and stormchaser16, had alot of discussion about it for the last 2 days. Regardless of how it turns our any convection that continues to persist, wane and fire up again time after time in the 48 hrs that it has been in the same area, with somewhat low pressures has to watched. Also, ull and ridges will continue to aggravate or help tropical systems as we have seen with 97L and 98L. Speaking of the ull north of Cuba it has filled in alot today, and slowed down from last night, because it was making its way towards s fla, seems it has slowed down quite a bit.

[Nimbus]

"Speaking of the ull north of Cuba it has filled in alot today, and slowed down from last night, because it was making its way towards s fla, seems it has slowed down quite a bit."

Good observation The surface pressure is coming up in Nassau a little as well.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MYNN.html

I can also still see a naked swirl within 98L rolling west off South Carolina. Maybe it won't get pulled northeast as soon as they thought?