Is ex 97L trying to come back or we can stick a fork?

Stormchaser16 · #21 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:07 pm

Brett developed from a wave in the SW gulf..... your point?

rbaker · #22 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:08 pm

i beg to differ stormchaser16, you must not look at your satellite pictures very often, convection was not all lost(alot but not all) and when you have convection over water that keeps flaring up in the same area now for 2 days, when you all had it in the yucatan or belize by now, there is lower pressures in the area, etc, etc. A rule of thumb as you problemy know by now, that the wave starting as a wave had at least a mlc, and probably a llc, and then went down to a wave, but not completely out, is still a reason to watch, that something doesn't start up again.
Personally, I thought we had this conversation the other night for all the same reasons. Try looking at your sat pictures, surface reports, pressure reports, wind reports. Just because it went down to a wave, IT HAD NOT COMPLETELY DISSAPATED.

bahamaswx · #23 Postby **bahamaswx** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:10 pm

It's always been a wave. Never more.

corpusbreeze · #24 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:10 pm

My point is pull the fork it aint done.

rbaker · #25 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:12 pm

corpus point is that you have to have a disturbance before a depression, which is a wave, or sometimes a tropial disturbance. Thats why the tpc sometimes puts out a special tropial disturbance statement, because it didn't necessarly spin up from a tropical wave, just like the disturbance east of the bahamas.

rbaker · #26 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:15 pm

bahamaswx, just because its a wave doesn't mean it does not have potential, just like it did a few days ago. I've seen many times remanent lows or waves decrease, increase, stay the same for awhile.

Stormchaser16 · #27 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:16 pm

Rbaker....... I sit here with numerous IE windows open ALL concerning different sattelite, IR, and visible loops of the once good looking wave. The fact is that just about ALL of the convection was lost that night(except for some enhancement from some t-storms that moved off of the DR/Haiti area)..... BUT.... ALL convection around ANY MLC or LLC that it had dissipated, and dissipated quickly. The fact was, the environment was too hostile for such a quick moving wave to develop.

Also my wind reports tell me there is NO reason to be concerned...... check your other thread, you mention a NORTH wind at Honduras, when 1) wave axis isnt over Honduras, and 2) what kind of circulation would that be lol, a figure 8 or something?

My point is, the chances of this wave garnering up enough potential to become an organized tropical system at this point is very slim, if it does AT ALL, it is running out of water, and running out of water pretty fast.

The point about Brett is invalid IMO, Brett did not develop from a wave like this, Brett was a category 4 hurricane in the SW gulf of mexico, i see no reason for comparison to the 2. This is an ill organized open wave with some light-moderate convection. As far as I am concerned, my fork remains poked well through the body of former 97L and will NOT be pulled out until signs of circulation and more convection are realized.

Stormchaser16 · #28 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:17 pm

Well of course all tropical systems have to start somewhere, but there is really no comparison between Brett and this wave.

corpusbreeze · #29 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:21 pm

Stormchaser Bret did form out of a strong wave that moved over the Yucatan became very weak and then blossomed into a cat 4 storm in one day.

Stormchaser16 · #30 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:24 pm

I know that......... in that way the situation is similar, but at least that wave, to my understanding was a bit more vigorous then the puny scattered convection we have down there now. I am still sticking a fork in this wave, if it can get into the gulf, then great.... but it may just be ripped apart.

rbaker · #31 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:28 pm

stormchaser16, thanks for making my point, you just said in your last point, that you are not through with this wave until you see a circulation?
No, I believe I know what a counter-clock wise circulation is, take a look at atwc.org at look at surfacr reports for 01z at Cozumel, east se at kinston, this could have a broad circulation, does that look or sound like a figure 8 to you? Unfortunaly, the Honduras report is missing, and you know as well as I think you know you don't have to have a completely ne wind if the axis of the wave is east of the axis, the wave can be se behind the axis and ne or n in front, I don't have the liberty of exactly what the true compass direction was, I just went by the surface progs. But if you want I'll get them on the same site under the same area called weather from caribbean islands.

corpusbreeze · #32 Postby **corpusbreeze** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:29 pm

That Stormchaser I agree. To be anything in the GOM it needs a lot more vigorous before crossing the hurricane speed bump.

KatDaddy · #33 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:32 pm

Well its true Bret did form from a weak wave and blossomed overnight inconjunction with an ULL. Listed below is the first part of Bret's Prelim report BUT one should ask what upper level condition existed for such rapid development. This type of development does not happen often but can. Thus in this thread I deem everyone is correct. Yes it can happen but I would need to see something more before I would say this will lead to development. I have watch the tropics for years and see nothing that looks like development currently. Also learned to never say never so until it moves into Mexico its a feature to watch that is currently harmless.

Bret formed as a tropical depression over the Bay of Campeche on 18 August. Both a tropical wave and an upper-level low contributed to the formation of Bret. A tropical wave moved from Africa to the tropical Atlantic Ocean on 5 August. Continuity and soundings from Merida, Mexico place this weak tropical wave in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula on the 18th. The second feature, an upper-level cyclonic circulation, appeared on water vapor imagery over the north central Caribbean moving westward on 15 August. The circulation initiated a thunderstorm complex on the night of the 17th over the Yucatan Peninsula and a weak surface low formed in the same location early on the 18th..

Stormchaser16 · #34 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:33 pm

Rbaker the figure 8 was just a joke, lighten up...

It would have to be a VERY broad circulation, but the fact is that the wave axis doesnt even reach from Honduras to the Caymans so its very improbable to me....

And yes I said im not pulling my fork out till signs of circulation are shown, then Ill admit that something is up and i shouldnt have given up on it. Did i ever say that circulation is going to show itself? NO, I dont think that any circulation(LLC) will get going with this wave at all, thus my fork remains firmly intact.

Stormchaser16 · #35 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:38 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_carib.gif

Doesnt look like anything to me

rbaker · #36 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:40 pm

that' your opinion, and thats fine, either one of us could be right or wrong. But I don't understand your reasoning, just because it was almost a td, and now is a wave or a chance of a broad circulation you look elsewhere. Just like the forum said never give up on a system until completely gone. Just like the tpc with a little swirl and no convection at all except cirrus clouds at low levels.
Granted, this had a mlc, or maybe a llc, but its a wave with convection, and you can't deny it.

Stormchaser16 · #37 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:44 pm

Im not denying its a wave with some difluent assisted convection without ANY circulation...... in that respect you are right. My point is, like Ive been saying all along, when theres really no chance for development, you turn to other things that have a chance..... right now those chances are 98L, south of Cape Verde and another wave about to emerge. Why should I waste my time with a wave(barely) that is about to run out of water and time to develop into anything. If it makes it into the GOM, great, call me, Ill turn my attention towards it. Right now there is plenty else out there to take a look at. Again, my fork is in it not because its only a wave, but because I see no potential for further development. You are trying to make it seem like I cant say "its done stick a fork in it" only because theres some moderate thunderstorm activity with a has been wave....... well I can and am, and this is only as far as development goes.

Stormchaser16 · #38 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:51 pm

I dont know if anyone could disagree with the fact that this is just like what happened to it last time it fired up convection......

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhewv.html

Its pretty obvious its difluent flow that is helping it fire it up, but like last time, this is not favorable for development

rbaker · #39 Postby **rbaker** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:51 pm

or course it doesn't, your missing the Honduras coast report on that 02z surface plot, and all convection is to the south of kin and gcm. Did you ck your pressures and convection (of course you did). Are you saying this is a puney wave, it was yesterday, but not out. If you want to look at a puney wave, look at the one everyone was getting excited about when this one started fading near long 50-55w.

Stormchaser16 · #40 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 9:53 pm

Ripped apart by SAL, just as much as this one was ripped apart by its fast forward motion vs. shear and ULL influence

Yes I am saying its Puney, no circulation, linear in nature, and convection assisted only by difluent flow, yup puney.

Is ex 97L trying to come back or we can stick a fork?

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