Caribbean stirring? Kingston reports 29.85......

[dixiebreeze]

a pretty good drop in pressure this evening:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

Bit of a flare-up S. of Jamaica, but the area is juicy in general, so who knows.......

[kevin]

I wouldn't be very concerned about that.

[rbaker]

why would yu not be concerned about lower pressures in that area, a north wind on the Honduras coast line a e-se at cayman, a convection picking up again in a climotogically favorable area just about any time of year?

[Dave C]

Just ran a water vapor loop of that area and an upper-low is moving into Yucatan. The convection is flaring in the diffluent flow to it's east. The loop also looks pretty wild in the Bahamas, that upper-low rolling west towards Florida.

[caneman]

Yes Dave I agree, I think all the convection is due to the ULL.

[boca]

still need much needed rain along Fl Se coast

[dixiebreeze]

why would yu not be concerned about lower pressures in that area, a north wind on the Honduras coast line a e-se at cayman, a convection picking up again in a climotogically favorable area just about any time of year?

Good points.

[rbaker]

yea, and the ull is causing convection on east side of bahamas, which is shear, I don't see shear as evident on the caribbean feature, plus convection is pretty far south of that ull.

[Stormchaser16]

Its difluent influence, just like it was when it was almost a depression, as soon as it loses the influence, it will once again dissipate.

[Stormchaser16]

BTW... what type of circulation is coming out of this with a north wind at Honduras and a e-se wind at Cayman..... never heard of any tropical circulation like that lol.....

BTW..... wave axis isnt even near Honduras yet?

[corpusbreeze]

is it me or do upper level lows always seem to be around developing tropical systems? Some say they hurt them and others say they help. I'm not sure.

[bahamaswx]

ULL's are generally unfavorable for developing tropical systems. They tend to create a lot of shear, which will aid in divergence over the wave, creating more and deeper convection, but doesn't allow for any real tropical development to get going. On the other hand, if the ULL is far enough away, it can help the wave to ventilate itself while not disrupting any development.

...correct me if I'm wrong. I'm sure someone else can say it better even if I'm not.

[Stormchaser16]

Nicely said Bahamaswx, your pretty much on spot. This is what happened with 97L, it interacted with the ULL to garner up quite an impressive amount of convection, it was Derecho I believe, who talked about it running into a hot spot on the SE side of the associated boundary. This caused it to have pretty nice and deep convection, but was never favorable for the wave to develop. Once it pulled away from this so called hot spot, we saw it lose all that convection. Once again the wave may be hitting a spot along another ULL in its path(to the west of 98L) causing it to refire some convection, but again it is only going to help it gain convection, and is not condusive for development ATT.

[Nimbus]

Surface winds are picking up as well, 23 mph out of the south east 140 degrees.

[Stormcenter]

Nicely said Bahamaswx, your pretty much on spot. This is what happened with 97L, it interacted with the ULL to garner up quite an impressive amount of convection, it was Derecho I believe, who talked about it running into a hot spot on the SE side of the associated boundary. This caused it to have pretty nice and deep convection, but was never favorable for the wave to develop. Once it pulled away from this so called hot spot, we saw it lose all that convection. Once again the wave may be hitting a spot along another ULL in its path(to the west of 98L) causing it to refire some convection, but again it is only going to help it gain convection, and is not condusive for development ATT.

What does ATT mean?
Thanks!

[lilbump3000]

I think it means At This Time.

[bahamaswx]

I'd rather ATM.. At The Moment.

[tailgater]

the winds are out of the SE true but the pressure is about equal to 24 Hrs. ago, pressure has actually risen in the caymans which is much closer to convection.