Tropical models in 18:00 UTC run initial position more south

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cycloneye
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Tropical models in 18:00 UTC run initial position more south

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:12 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982004) ON 20040723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040723 1800 040724 0600 040724 1800 040725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 69.6W 26.7N 70.2W 27.8N 71.1W 28.8N 71.8W
BAMM 25.7N 69.6W 27.0N 70.1W 28.4N 70.8W 29.7N 71.4W
A98E 25.7N 69.6W 26.8N 70.0W 28.3N 70.0W 28.9N 70.2W
LBAR 25.7N 69.6W 26.8N 70.1W 28.4N 70.7W 30.0N 71.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040725 1800 040726 1800 040727 1800 040728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 72.4W 30.1N 73.0W 30.1N 73.9W 30.2N 75.5W
BAMM 30.8N 72.0W 32.4N 72.5W 34.6N 72.5W 38.1N 71.1W
A98E 29.5N 70.3W 29.9N 71.1W 30.6N 71.7W 31.4N 72.6W
LBAR 31.5N 72.5W 34.9N 73.0W 38.2N 70.1W 40.5N 63.3W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 60KTS 57KTS
DSHP 54KTS 59KTS 60KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.7N LONCUR = 69.6W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 24.5N LONM12 = 69.6W DIRM12 = 22DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 23.5N LONM24 = 70.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The new position is more south in latitud (25n) than previous ones (29n) indicating that they are now looking at the area of more convection than where that naked swril is.
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#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:17 pm

They should be looking more to the south were the thunderstorms are located.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:19 pm

25.7n-69.6w is the new more south position that the models initial plot is.
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#4 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:20 pm

Yep. Nothing is going to come of that naked LLC.
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#5 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:31 pm

Yeah...the swirl is jsut an eddy. However, you can see the spin near 26/70.
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#6 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:37 pm

It's not very well pronounced, but yeah, you can see it pretty easily as it drifts northward.
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