Recon going in tommorow says TWO

[Derecho]

Like Melborne Area Forecast Discussion.

THE NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE SE U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING E...
WHILE A STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE NRN TIER STATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG H85-H30 ZONAL
FLOW. THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW FROM ESCAPING TO THE
NORTH...AND MAY EVEN CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE INTO THE GULF STATES.

What you put in bold face was referring to a MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, NOT a SURFACE LOW.

[yoda]

Thanks for the details about the models Derecho.

[stormchazer]

Fiesty today, Derecho?

THE RESULTING INCREASE IN UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SPIN UP A WEAK CLOSED LOW OUT OF A THE SRN EXTENSION OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OVER ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES.

THE NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE SE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING E...WHILE A STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NRN TIER STATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG H85-H30 ZONAL FLOW. THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW FROM ESCAPING TO THE NORTH...AND MAY EVEN CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE INTO THE GULF STATES.

The report is not specific about it being a in the mid-levels or not. When you start talking about a "closed low" during Hurricane season, it is natural that ones interest would perk up. I have not looked at the models, do they suggest a mid-level low?

[Guest]

That WREL Model Map initiates things way to far north.The main area of disturbed weather is around 22-23 N.

[lilbump3000]

Your right MIA. I was just about to say instead of paying attention to that low around 30N. We need to be watching the area of weather south of that. That looks like the area that will have the best chance for development.

[Thunder44]

KC, it also says IF NECESSARY!!! So, they still may not go in...
but I give it a 80% chance they will go and check it out..

Yep but its going in as far as Im concerned until I am told otherwise tommorow.

They won't go out unless this system get better organzied than it is now. They schedule to prepare ahead of time.

[bahamaswx]

Ah, I see Derecho got to it before I could.

[Nimbus]

Is the circulation to the south all low level or is that a mid level circulation working its way to the surface?

[Derek Ortt]

Using a barotropic model for this system? Good way to blow the forecast

[ameriwx2003]

Looking at the Water Vapor imagery you can see an upper Level low moving West thru the bahamas . Lets see what is left behind east of the Bahamas once that Upper low moves west over Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html