Player in the E. Atlantic looking.........

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dixiebreeze
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Player in the E. Atlantic looking.........

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:05 am

very feisty today. Maybe it will out-rank our Bahama blob in the long run:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:06 am

Yes indeed. We may see a TD out of this if it is able to hold together in the next 3-5 days...
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#3 Postby rbaker » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:08 am

i agree dixie, system by cape verde, has a nice cdo, and outflow.
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#4 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:10 am

Dixie,
Welcome back...:)
Fiesty huh. Is that the same thing as having a "feel"..lol...:)
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#5 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:11 am

WOW. This is the first time I have noticed this area of convection and it really suprises me. I think yoda jus tmay be right about this possibly becoming a TD but we will have to wait and see until probally 2-4 days out at the earliest.
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#6 Postby Stephanie » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:36 am

It looks good! This is the first one that's held together after exiting the coast.
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#7 Postby stormchazer » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:47 am

It does look good. It is a little far south though, especially for this time of year.
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#8 Postby dixiebreeze » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:51 am

Trader Ron wrote:Dixie,
Welcome back...:)
Fiesty huh. Is that the same thing as having a "feel"..lol...:)


Hey Trader, no, "feisty" means scrappy, fighting to survive, etc. :roll: :lol:
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#9 Postby Ola » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:56 am

the convection you are looking at there is ITZ related enhanced by the tropical wave. The actual weak low is around 14 north not under the ITZ convection.

Image

from the 2:05 twd

TROPICAL WAVE 50 NM EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S
OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH
SATELLITE PICTURES AND QUIKSCAT SHOWING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
PERHAPS A WEAK LOW IN THE AREA OF 14N20W. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED
IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 26W.
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#10 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:57 am

Dixie,

I hear ya...kid..:)
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#11 Postby stormchazer » Fri Jul 23, 2004 12:02 pm

Thanks for the QuikScat. I see your point.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
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looks like...

#12 Postby Patrick99 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 12:36 pm

At this point, it has an Alberto-like look to it. I seem to remember for some reason that at this stage of the game, Alberto looked rather similar....
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#13 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 12:38 pm

Alberto didn't do much...

http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/Tropica ... d3/td3.cgi
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#14 Postby kevin » Fri Jul 23, 2004 12:47 pm

Looks like the convection is moving south. Bah.
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#15 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Jul 23, 2004 1:23 pm

Oh well.......
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