Recon going in tommorow says TWO

[Wnghs2007]

416
ABNT20 KNHC 231504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
TWO WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN ENDS OF THE CLOUD BAND. THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS MAY
EVENTUALLY MERGE NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE CLOUD BAND WHERE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WEATHER SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
$$

[yoda]

KC, it also says IF NECESSARY!!! So, they still may not go in...
but I give it a 80% chance they will go and check it out..

[Wnghs2007]

KC, it also says IF NECESSARY!!! So, they still may not go in...
but I give it a 80% chance they will go and check it out..

Yep but its going in as far as Im concerned until I am told otherwise tommorow.

[HURAKAN]

Is always good to send a RECON to investigate areas that are suspicious or have potential for development.

[yoda]

And Scott's new maps show the 98L invest area moving ENE soon... oh well..

[Wnghs2007]

And Scott's new maps show the 98L invest area moving ENE soon... oh well..

I for one would trust the most relible models for this weak system. And those are the BAMM and Another model I cant think of that starts with a B. And they dont take it that far north.

[yoda]

See here my young one...

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

[Wnghs2007]

The LBar, AVN, AND UKMET are not tropical models and are not reliable. So we can cut there outrageous tracks out. Now we are reduced to the BAMM, BAMD, and A98E Which all leave it at pretty low latitudes. And is which I can trust because there is a continental Ridge that is going to be blocking it from going to far to the norht.

[yoda]

Ah, so are we suggesting that there may be a threat to the East Coast KC?

[Wnghs2007]

Ah, so are we suggesting that there may be a threat to the East Coast KC?

No I am saying that it is just going to hang further south than those three models think. I have even heard predictions that it might roll down into the FL, GA, SC, NC, OR VA Coastlines.

[yoda]

Ah, so are we suggesting that there may be a threat to the East Coast KC?

No I am saying that it is just going to hang further south than those three models think. I have even heard predictions that it might roll down into the FL, GA, SC, NC, OR VA Coastlines.

And where have we heard these predictions from?

[Wnghs2007]

And where have we heard these predictions from?

John Kerry told me. LOL

[yoda]

LOL KC... no really are u making those predictions or did you hear them from somewhere?

[Wnghs2007]

LOL KC... no really are u making those predictions or did you hear them from somewhere?

I have heard them off of some of the National Hurricane Centers Discussions. And by Local AFD's for the Carliona coast. Remember my Uncle was a hurricane hunter. So I get all types of cool contacts.

[yoda]

Well you never told me about your uncle..

But what AFD's? Could you show me?

[Wnghs2007]

Like Melborne Area Forecast Discussion.

FXUS62 KMLB 230133
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
926 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK P-GRAD AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN DENSE FOR LAST
COUPLE NIGHT. P-GRAD OVERNIGHT FCST BY RUC AND ARPS ONLY MGNLY
STRONGER BUT WINDS IN RECENT OBS AND XMR PROFILER SHOW AN INC JUST
ABV THE SFC. IN ADDITION WNDS FCST TO VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOG IN FCST BUT TRENDS SUGGEST IT
WILL BE LESS PROLIFIC ESP ALONG THE COAST. SLGT INC IN WNDS ALOFT
ALSO SUGGEST MORE LOW STRATUS AND A BIT LESS FOG. WITH NO EVE PCPN
IN FCST WILL LEAVE FCST AS IS. WILL UPDATE HWO FOR FOG CONCERNS.

PREV DISC...
FRI-SUN...
WX PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST BY 12Z SAT. STRONG H25 JET BRANCH OVER THE
UPPER MID WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS JET WILL
TIGHTEN THE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF A HI AMPLITUDE
H50-H25 TROF JUST OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN
UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SPIN UP A WEAK CLOSED
LOW OUT OF A THE SRN EXTENSION OF A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES.

THE NEW LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE SE U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW FROM MOVING E...
WHILE A STRONG CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER WRN CANADA WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE NRN TIER STATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG H85-H30 ZONAL
FLOW. THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE WILL BLOCK THE LOW FROM ESCAPING TO THE
NORTH...AND MAY EVEN CAUSE IT TO RETROGRADE INTO THE GULF STATES.
RESULTING SFC AND STEERING FLOW WILL VEER FROM THE N/NE ON FRI TO
THE S/SW ON SUN. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES PLACE. AS THE WX PATTERN SHIFTS FROM LOW MOISTURE/NRLY FLOW
TO MODERATE MOISTURE/SWRLY FLOW...DIURNAL POPS WILL INCREASE FROM
10-30% ON FRI TO 50% AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY.

MON-THU...EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS ALIGNED ITSELF A LITTLE BETTER TODAY
WRT TO TRACK OF THE WEAKENING T-WAVE OVER THE NRN CARIB. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF NOW KEEP THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...
PASSING THE CRUX OF THE MOISTURE OVER CUBA AND THE FL STRAITS. POPS
IN THE EXTENDED PD WILL REMAIN AOB 50% THRU THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PGRAD WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING SFC/BOUNDARY WINDS AOB 15KTS. WHILE SEAS WILL REMAIN
AOB 3FT...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE N/NE TO THE S/SW AS THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLC COAST AND RETROGRADES OVER THE NRN
GULF STATES THROUGH SUN. CHOPPY ATLC WATERS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BLOTTMAN/VOLKMER

[yoda]

Ah i see... but you did say the Carolina coasts AFD!!

[rbaker]

don't see any models yet on nogaps which is usually pretty good with tropical systems, only problem this system is not pure tropical yet.

[yoda]

That is correct rbaker... NOGAPS usually does pretty well with tropical systems... I will go look on their site...

[Derecho]

The LBar, AVN, AND UKMET are not tropical models and are not reliable. So we can cut there outrageous tracks out. Now we are reduced to the BAMM, BAMD, and A98E Which all leave it at pretty low latitudes. And is which I can trust because there is a continental Ridge that is going to be blocking it from going to far to the norht.

Ummmm....

There's really no polite way to tell someone they don't have the foggiest idea of what they're talking about, so I won't bother trying...you don't have the foggiest idea of what you're talking about.

The LBAR is the very DEFINITION of a "tropical model." It was designed for the sole purpose of predicting the path of a tropical cyclone, and it has NO other use. The only time it's ever run is on a specific tropical system or potential system.

That said, it's a very old and simplistic model, and not very good. It's even worse once you get north of about 15-20N or so, will often have crazy off the wall tracks.

There technically is nothing called the AVN anymore; it's called the GFS.

The GFS and UKMET are both "Global" models. There's nothing specifically not tropical about them. And they show skill in tropical prediction.

The BEST "model" the last few years has been the GUNA, which is an average of the GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS. To say the GFS are UKMET ae "not reliable" is just absurd.

BAMD and BAMM both use the GFS (your supposed "non-tropical" model) as background fields. They're of some use.

The A98E is a piece of garbage. It's an ancient partially statistical (it uses statistical data on past storms in the area for part of its forecast, instead of just using current conditions and modeling the atmoshpere) and is the worst track model on a routine basis.