Invest 98L Analysis

[hurricanemike]

Nothing really to speak off in sfc data/satellite as it looks like a elongated frontal boundary.



Water Vapor showing dry air pressing SE from NE Gulf SE to S FL hindering convection development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Upper levels appear unfavorable for the time being as 50 kt shear exists all over the area on the 200 mb 00Z streamline anal.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/QHQA17.TIF

From 0205 am TWD:

W ATLC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE. MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE IS ALONG THE TROUGH INDUCING A WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 29N73W. BROAD
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE LOW FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 68W-72W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS...BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY SUN. ELSEWHERE...A NARROW UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE E NEAR 26N63W WITH A TROF EXTENDING SWD TO THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
IS BECOMING STRETCHED AS IT RUNS INTO RIDGING OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS.

[bahamaswx]

It definitely appears to have become more tropical in nature over the past few hours. Shear really is quite nasty all around the system, but should decrease substantially over the next 24hrs, and can already be seen to be relaxing to the east of it. Dry air won't really pose a problem either as the upper trough breaks down.

The globals aren't really doing anything with this, basically just moving a remnant low northward through 36hours and then NNE along the coast. On the other hand, if it can maintain it's convection through the daylight hours tomorrow, and not fizzle out...we may really have something interesting on our hands here.

Of course.. I'd put my money on it going "poof"

[Wnghs2007]

Of course.. I'd put my money on it going "poof"

With most every Invest we have had this year I have put my money on it going "poof" as you say!!!!!!!!!LOL

[bahamaswx]

Well I'm always wrong. No doubt I will be again.

[Storm Man]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

[bahamaswx]

Not quite as impressive as before.. and cloud tops are warming.

[Steve H.]

If it stays south long enuf it could be problematic as a high will build north of it over the weekend. But that's a strech right now.

[wxman57]

That satellite image yu posted isn't 98L. 98L is the weak surface low out of the picture to the north. The low can be clearly seen spinning in the clear air west of the convection. Note the discussion mentions the low at 29N/73W.

[Steve H.]

NRL site has it at 24.7

[wxman57]

NRL site has it at 24.7

Look at NRL's visible image from yesterday - it was north of 30 deg near about 72.8W:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

There's nothing south of 30N but thunderstorms along the front now. The low has raced up north to around 33N. It's this weak surface low that was 98L.

[cycloneye]

29.4n-72.7w 1010 mbs 20 kts at 6:00 Zthat is what the NRL site has for the position and that is way north of the convection to the south.[/img]

[Steve H.]

I stand corrected.... misread the coordinates....too early. The NHC was referring to the SE Bahmas whereas the LLCC is to the north and is clearly visible now. Devoid of convection currently but that could change. This may get blocked off from the north, and it will be interesting to see what it does while sitting.

[hurricanemike]

opps...my bad...