98L invest for area NE of Bahamas

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Aquawind
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#21 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2004 9:59 pm

Yeah it's in a little pocket now..give it time and little westward movement..
Last edited by Aquawind on Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#22 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:11 pm

Invest 98L
23/00Z
29.3N 72.6W
25 mph
1010 mb / 29.83"

Image
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#23 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:43 pm

At near midnight, it's looking pretty good. And, if persistence counts.......
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#24 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:45 pm

Are there any model runs? By then they would have posted some kind of model runs,
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#25 Postby whereverwx » Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:58 pm

is it moving south? it looks like it
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#26 Postby lilbump3000 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 10:59 pm

Never know a high suppose to be buliding along the gulf and over florida. It might just ride under that high to the south, then southwest.
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Matthew5

#27 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:04 pm

It is moving slowly as far as I can see. It appears that the center is located at 29.8 north at this time. It looks exposed with the convection to the east. Kind of looks like a one sided system. Quickscat I have looked at do no show a LLCC. Remember this was a Upper low I think?
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#28 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:06 pm

Remember this was a Upper low I think?


Actually it was clearly at the surface on visable before the sun went down..just naked.. 8-)
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#29 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:15 pm

I will have to look at more Quickscats. But it seems that the low is exposed from the convection. The convection is to the east side. A few more things pointing to a upper low is that the low pressure is pushing the convection away on the Eastern side kind of like a upper low? Plus the Quickscat do not show it as a LLCC? :eek:


I Give it 10 percent chance at tropical depression over the next 24 hours. Then the shear may get less after that so 30 percent chance from 24 to 48 hours.
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#30 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:15 pm

Calamity186 wrote:is it moving south? it looks like it


Globals at 18 and 0Z generally pulled it to the SE then headed up. See First Call map post.
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#31 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:17 pm

The latest qscat on the NRL site is farther south than the LLC. So I guess they think the main area of convection might form. Any way I can see a good area of divergence on qscat feeding those storms.
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#32 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:18 pm

It appears that it could be down to the surface but little or no convction??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#33 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:20 pm

Matthew5 wrote:It appears that it could be down to the surface but little or no convction??? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Correct..been totally naked since spotted at 5:30pm..
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