It looks like the atlantic will have it's first TD or TS soon in the next 12-24 hours.Read the statement at link below and any comments are welcomed.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/s2kforecast.html
3:00 PM Storm2k Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert !!
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cycloneye
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3:00 PM Storm2k Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert !!
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jul 21, 2004 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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I made this statement before I knew what happened to recon and before the convection completly collapsed so forgive me if I jumped a little bit ahead here but my excuses to all.This wont happen again as I may alter the time to a bit later than 3 PM to then gather more information maybe 3:30-4:00 PM EDT.
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vbhoutex
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No apologies are necessary Luis. You were using the best information available to you at the time. You did not say it was going to form right away and it still could easily form into a tropical cyclone in the time frame you set forth. And as you know you are not the only person who participated in the decision. THANK YOU FOR THE CONTINUING GREAT JOB YOU DO FOR STORM2K!! 
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cycloneye
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Thanks David for your support. 
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Stormchaser16
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Cycloneye, you do a great job here, no need to apologize at all.....
I do agree with you that maybe pushing back the time might be a good thing to do, at that time you can start to see what diurnal effects may begin to takeover and how the system holds for a good chunk of the day ,also this will give you time to examine flight data from the recon.
I do agree with you that maybe pushing back the time might be a good thing to do, at that time you can start to see what diurnal effects may begin to takeover and how the system holds for a good chunk of the day ,also this will give you time to examine flight data from the recon.
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