No potential yet

[Stormchaser16]

I have to see how the system maintains itself overnight however at this moment I am very worried we may be losing it.....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Convective activity is dying down ALOT more so then I would expect from what normally occurs. The system is veyr elongated and it is clear it is STILL under the influence of shear (southern and to a lesser extent the northern edge).... any circulation it may have developed today ran outward ahead of the system, and any circulation it may have now is definately MLC and NOT LLC, and under weakening convection. It is also closer to DR/Haiti then I would have expected (the area where the probable weak MLC is). To me, the system looks to ragged right now to be considering immediate development.
To make an analogy to a movie (Dante's peak) where they are arguing whether or not the situation was serious, Harry(the main investigator) says, it's like a frog in boiling water, if you put it right in, it will jump out, but.... if you put it in warm water and slowly heat it up then it will slowly boil to death. This reminds me of that situation, if this wave were to just "appear" today and we just noticed it, I dont think it would be all that impressive to most of us, however since we have been watching it for awhile we are hoping so highly for it. (So its like the move but vice versa)........

[Agua]

Yeah, looks like it's croaking.

[rbaker]

your both incorrect. The system on the western side of storm has developed an feeder inflow band, and its typical for these weak systems, to flare during the early am and convection wane towards afternoon, just like we have been seeing in the last three days. Take a real good look at winds in front of system, over Jamaica they are easterly you can see plainly, but just too the south near Honduras you can see westerlies. This system is just about the westerlies, and as long as it continues moving west to wnw it will stay out of the westerlies. Look for refire of convection tonight late, but if it doesn't it will over the w. caribbean. Climotology has never had a depression form in this general area since 1886.

[Dean4Storms]

I clearly see a LLC near 16n 75w and it has out run it's upper structure. But as you say, it must regain some convection overnite and has every nite for the last couple of days. We will see.

[Rainband]

Look east!!! towards the other wave. That has better potential Anything is possible however..because this is the tropics

[rbaker]

they both have potential, so from none to two all at once. Stanger things have happened.

[Stormchaser16]

I respectufully disagree with the statement that we are both wrong, while it is normal for convection to die down, we are really losing any convective support for what otherwise might have been a developing LLC or a sustained MLC. The thing is tilted and elongated very very badly, and it is still racing west at 25 mph or greater. SHEAR is still a problem contrary to what some are saying is a now more favorable environment, this can clearly be noted on IR and Vis. loops, just take a look at the southern edge, you can clearly see westerlies racing towards the system indicating stronger shear. Also the ULL to its north is still hampering efforts for it to develop at this time. Granted, it IS a better environment then yesterday but I am still not convinced we have anything for another 24 hours or more (if at all). If convection doesn't refire overnight then the recon for tommorow morning would not be necessary IMO. What NEEDS to happen is it needs to slow down, shear needs to weaken, influence from the ULL needs to decrease, and convection needs to refire and build westward over the circulation/s trying to develop only to shoot westward away from the system. Of course for that to happen we NEED the wave to slow down a lot.........

[rbaker]

stormchaser everything you said, was what I said earlier, except for the ull to its north. The ull is not movng west along with the wave, so it will have less infleunce then it is possibly doing now. Again, I repeat we have seen this wave wane during the day and refire at night. Don't see any reason it won't do the same tonight, unless dynamics are not there. As you stated, its in a less hostile environment than last night, and has survived. Climotology says it has even a better chance tommorow or better yet on Fri. of developing. And one other thing it has slowed down to about 20 mph, and I believe it will do some more once past Jamaica. Read the 1900z tropical discussion about the speed and shear.

[Stormchaser16]

I understand the whole waning and refiring thing, but tonight it really seems to be waning quite a bit......

I mean COME ON just take a look at it....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

ITS ALMOST GONE, its VERY elongated west-east now, not even NW-SE. Its got A LOT of refiring to do tonight if it has any chance of development.

[rbaker]

take a look at a 72 hr loop and you will see that it looked very similar about this time last night and maybe even the night before, except night before a piece of the northen half of wave was sucked up nw towards the virgins, while the southern end kept its westward track.
Very typical for systems like this or even tds or ts to wane and fire. In fact when I woke up this morning and turned on the tv for weather channel at 550a from last night at 1100p when I went to bed, it was like night and day. I am no pro, but I have watched too many of these things, and this one is no different unless it was just sheared apart.

[Stormchaser16]

Ok ok ok........

But let me ask you this..... has it developed yet? nope....
My point? The environment has kept it from developing, and i see no reason with the present environment for it to develop now. What we need is at least sustained convection near a LLC..... such is not the case with this wave yet. We need a LLC to form underneath convective activity, it needs to at least sustain some convection near a developing center at night, but it has not done that yet. Combine this with the current environment, albeit a little better then yesterday is still hostile enough to keep it from developing.

[bahamaswx]

Yep. 24hours ago there was even less convection.

[Stormchaser16]

24 hrs ago it didnt have a porbable/possible LLC developing underneath it now did it?

The problem is its still moving way too fast such that any convection quickly becomes displaced east of any developing LLC.

[Thunder44]

Everytime it flares up, it advances in development. I really think just based on what it looks like now. In fact, even though the convection has died down, the cloud structure is more organzied then it was last night. Tomorrow morning I suspect it will be flaring up again.

[Stormchaser16]

Sure it will, its only natural that it would be. The thing that dissapoints me is the very bad tilt and elongation w-e with it, I can also see it being sheared in some spots.

[KatDaddy]

I agree with Stormchaser16. Its clearly unstacked thanks to shear. Sorry but it will not develop any time soon. Maybe in the next 24-46 hour period conditions will change enough for a more stacked system. Once that occur then we will have real development.

[rbaker]

i guess we are talking two different things here. I never said the system is developing now, I said the western caribbean is the place. My point was that just because its losing its convection, is lopesided, has some shear, (but less than yesterday), that it has not dissapated. Let's just wait and see! In fact at MBJ at 2000z they have a north wind, Santo Domingo D.R. has a se wind at 21z, Circulation?

[Stormchaser16]

Did not mean to imply that you were saying it will develop, however alot of people(not necessarrily only on this board) were content on having our first TD today which to me was just silly to insist. For the numerous reasons stated above, could it have been one today? Maybe, but unlikely IMO.

[rbaker]

alot like me, but we have to look at reality, not hopes. We can only predict like me and you, and probably be better at it than most people on the street.

[Stormchaser16]

The other reason im totally against development now, is climatogoly, NONE in this area in the last 100 years till the end of this month