Now's the time...

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The_Cycloman_PR
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Now's the time...

#1 Postby The_Cycloman_PR » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:45 am

From now on, development time!! The wave is separating from the ULL and it's entering an area more favorable for development.
Image

It won't surprise me if the wave become TD#1 or Alex in the next few days when it reach the western caribbean, but it's behavior today and tomorow will will be a key for it's future development. I don't think the Dominican Republic will play a role with the wave as it axis is too far south of it's mountains. Ahead of the wave is a less shear environment and as it separate itself from the ULL it will encounter better conditions for development. This could be a big system for the GOM.

Image

Things are becoming interesting!! Isn't they? :D
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tracyswfla
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#2 Postby tracyswfla » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:53 am

Um, hmmm. LOL what track do the experts think it might take? I am wondering if I (on SW GOM) should check to see if our prescriptions should be refilled?

Tracy
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frederic79
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Here's a thought

#3 Postby frederic79 » Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:34 am

If this "wave" eventually becomes Alex and somehow makes it into the Gulf, what happens if shear is low or non-existant? We have water temps in the upper 80's along with warmer "pockets" that could potentially cause rapid intensification. No other storms to cause upwelling and lots of humidity there to fuel the fire. Lots of "ifs" but certainly worth considering.
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A date in the Gulf?

#4 Postby Weatherboy1 » Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:55 am

Wow -- when I shut my computer down last night, this thing looked DOA. I actually considered writing a post titled "Wave = Toast?" Glad I didn't or I'd have egg on my face! :lol:

Anyway, this sure looks to me like it could be a Gulf threat down the road. What kind of threat, I can't be sure. But as long as the system stays south of Hispanola (which I expect) and Cuba (likely), it very well could strengthen into a TS and even a cane. Tough to say.

At this point, we just have to watch and wait. Once there's an actual surface center to initialize ... and a few hours of actual surface center plots (to get a better idea for true speed, direction, etc.) ... I think the models will give a more accurate representation of potential tracks down the road.
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The_Cycloman_PR
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Re: Here's a thought

#5 Postby The_Cycloman_PR » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:09 am

frederic79 wrote:If this "wave" eventually becomes Alex and somehow makes it into the Gulf, what happens if shear is low or non-existant? We have water temps in the upper 80's along with warmer "pockets" that could potentially cause rapid intensification. No other storms to cause upwelling and lots of humidity there to fuel the fire. Lots of "ifs" but certainly worth considering.



A time bomb :eek: click...click....click...click....
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:10 am

Agree fully with your discussion about the wave and the ULL Cycloman.
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#7 Postby The_Cycloman_PR » Wed Jul 21, 2004 11:13 am

cycloneye wrote:Agree fully with your discussion about the wave and the ULL Cycloman.


Thanks :D
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