Worldwide Tropical Update: 21 July

[senorpepr]

The 21/15Z update is posted featuring...

A) Tropical Storm Celia (04E)
B) Invest 91W
C) Invest 97L

Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org

[Wnghs2007]

I thought I would let you know to update 1 thing on 97L the speed

C) Invest (97L): at 21/1200Z...
Position near 16.3N 71.7W (190 mi SSW of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic)

Movement toward the WNW at 25 mph

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph

Minimum central pressure is 1010 mb / 29.85"

[quote=Tropical Weather Outlook"]
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
LIKELY REACH JAMAICA TOMORROW AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.[/quote]


Just thought I would let you know thanks.

[senorpepr]

I know the TWO says 20 mph.

However, I used what was inserted into the models for teh 12Z run. They inserted WNW at 22kt or 25 mph.

009
WHXX01 KWBC 211301
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972004) ON 20040721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040721 1200 040722 0000 040722 1200 040723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 71.7W 16.2N 73.9W 16.0N 76.2W 16.0N 78.4W
BAMM 16.3N 71.7W 16.3N 74.2W 16.1N 76.7W 16.1N 78.9W
A98E 16.3N 71.7W 17.9N 75.5W 18.9N 78.6W 19.4N 81.1W
LBAR 16.3N 71.7W 17.4N 74.8W 18.1N 77.6W 18.7N 80.4W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040723 1200 040724 1200 040725 1200 040726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 80.6W 16.7N 84.9W 17.0N 89.4W 16.9N 93.6W
BAMM 16.2N 81.0W 16.8N 84.7W 17.2N 88.9W 17.2N 92.9W
A98E 19.7N 83.0W 20.6N 86.5W 21.7N 89.9W 22.8N 93.4W
LBAR 19.2N 82.9W 20.9N 86.8W 22.2N 89.8W 23.2N 92.2W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 64KTS 76KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 71.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 63.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....