Looks to be close to TC status.....

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Dean4Storms
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Looks to be close to TC status.....

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:31 am

Something that has not occured till this morning is very visible in IR Imagery. You can see very cold cloud tops on the western edge of convection but then a burst of the same cold cloud top convection to it's east where cloud tops had only just recently warmed. This is imperative to TC development as a center gets wrapped in convection instead of on the edge.
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#2 Postby kevin » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:35 am

Awesome! And btw the floater is over the system now. Dang this was a surprise, thought it wouldn't do this till it was near the Yucatan.
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#3 Postby yoda » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:37 am

Still NO Westerly winds on QUICKSCAT!
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#4 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:38 am

yoda wrote:Still NO Westerly winds on QUICKSCAT!



Its moving to fast to pick up the Westerly Wind. Which if it is there is probally only 5-15 knts. While the system is moving 22 knts. So it drowns it out.
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#5 Postby Derecho » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:38 am

Keep in mind the QS pass was at 6AM this morning....

Still, it's very unlikely to have a non-storm relative circulation at the moment.
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#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:39 am

I guess that's what's holding this storm up from TD status..... Come on... Wrap baby, wrap!!!!!!!!!
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#7 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:16 am

Don't assume there's a center beneath that convective burst. Strong westerly wind shear dominates the area. A mid or lower-level circulation is quite evident well-removed to the west of that cluster of storms. No ship reports near the system now, but it still looks like steady E-ESE winds through the disturbance at the surface.
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#8 Postby The Dark Knight » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:22 am

Hmmmmmm........
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#9 Postby Brent » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:23 am

This reminds me so much of Claudette last year. Remember it?

It looks like it's a tropical depression already(I know, I know, don't lecture, NO WESTERLY WINDS :roll: )
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#10 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:29 am

wxman57 wrote:Don't assume there's a center beneath that convective burst. Strong westerly wind shear dominates the area. A mid or lower-level circulation is quite evident well-removed to the west of that cluster of storms. No ship reports near the system now, but it still looks like steady E-ESE winds through the disturbance at the surface.


Very true, I would suspect that a Recon mission will get scheduled today if the burst in convection continues. The threat to Jamaica is looming and I can't see them waiting on some passing ship if this thing continues this deep of convection.
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