Watch this loop.......

The Dark Knight · #1 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:09 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Watch how the convection dramatically increasing....Amazing!!!!
Looks like it is in a favorable enviroment.... We will see what happens today......

yoda · #2 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:13 am

I agree.. but it looks like the thunderstorms to the SE portion are being "pushed" into the center. I must agree though, the explosion of convection to me is a bit surprising. However, I don't think we will have a TD today unless the LLC can form.

The Dark Knight · #3 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:45 am

Ya.... The thing that really caught my eye was the explosion of convection.....Geez..... It's definately doing something.....

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:52 am

The next couple hours will be interesting..it is warming at tad now..past it's peak but still holding the deep reds in the center..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

rbaker · #5 Postby **rbaker** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:56 am

don't everyone get their hopes up yet, this system has had a history of flares ups the last 3 days. If you look at wv loop, you can see some shear just to to the south, and the system has poor outflow on the western side. However this system has been persistant and once it gets by Jamaica, things could really get interesing, where condition are more favorable.

The Dark Knight · #6 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:59 am

Yes it could get VERY interseting..... I noticed that, that the western quadrenth is having a big time outflow problem.. It does look like there is some shear from the south... Oh well...... Let's just hope for the best.........:0

yoda · #7 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:03 am

If you look closely, all the big time convection seems to be migrating to the northern portion of the wave. Could this be due to the shear?

kevin · #8 Postby **kevin** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:03 am

I give it five hours before it looks puny again.

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:03 am

Have to agree with Rbaker here folks. As good as it looks, this system is moving into some Southwesterly shear which will keep pushing the convection to the N and E side of any center, mid or lower level until it gets past it near Jamaica. Not saying it won't pop today, but if it does it won't be till much later in the 24 hour time frame and AFTER if slows down some more. Current visibles do suggest that the mid or low level CC is outrunning the current blob of convection. This one is going to be interesting and tough to get a handle on(as if it hasn''t been already). Dean does have a good point about the convection and attempting to wrap the center, but for now I stick with later than sooner for upgrade.

yoda · #10 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:04 am

I agree with you David. It would be at least tomorrow before we see TD#1.

The Dark Knight · #11 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:07 am

Probably.........

#12 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:07 am

The weak upper low to the west of the system is loosing its influence as the system slows down. There is now outflow in all quads except the sw quad. As it approaches the high over the Bahamas the outflow will get better for the time being.

The latest quickscat shows a pretty sharp wave so it may not take a lot to spin up a LLC. This is a big change from yesterday when the wave was very shallow. This is because it has slowed down and therefore the amplitude increases...hence the increase in convection.

The Dark Knight · #13 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:11 am

Come on baby!!!!! Go TD!!!!!!!! So close....... Wrap, wrap!!!!!!

caneman · #14 Postby **caneman** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:11 am

I agree. Shear appears only minimal on the Southern Quad. I do believe we'll have a system today.

yoda · #15 Postby **yoda** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:12 am

The Dark Knight wrote:Come on baby!!!!! Go TD!!!!!!!! So close....... Wrap, wrap!!!!!!

Someone is JUST a bit enthusiastic

#16 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:16 am

My previous post notwithstanding, the latest visibles I have seen are suggesting the formation of a LLCC on the SW side of the convection. It is not a done deal yet, but it is looking more and more that way as we get more frames in. Still has to get past that SWerly shear, which is keeping the convection on the NE side of the mid/low level circulation, which it will within 24 hours if not sooner, before it has a real chance to pop. I would not at all rule out TD by tomorrow am though.

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:27 am

I'm so ready for this to develop.

The Dark Knight · #18 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:35 am

So am I, we've waited for SO LONG for anything to happen.... At first it almost died, then stayed the same, and now its close to TD status.. Well I guess that the first storm of the seaon is always this tense......

Watch this loop.......

Watch this loop.......

Who is online