![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
Celia Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
"CELIA"; Name Used in the Atlantic, in Use in the
ATLANTIC CELIA
The Atlantic Ocean used the name "Celia" three times, 1962, 1966, & for the last time in 1970.
"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 1962"
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1966"
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1970"
Hurricane Celia, 1970: Hurricane Celia was one of the most destructive storms to ever hit Texas, with damages estimated at $1.6 billion (in 1990 dollars). Celia became a hurricane on August 1 in the Gulf of Mexlco and intensified rapidly in 15 hours before it crossed the coast north of Corpus Christi. As it moved over land, spectacular damage occurred from a "cluster of high energy winds of short duration," (also called downbursts or microbursts).
The extreme winds raked across the residential and business areas in less than half an hour. It was estimated that winds reached as high as 160 mph for several seconds. During those disastrous seconds, incredible damage occurred at the airport and an adjacent mobile home park which was completely demolished. Fortunately, only 11 died in the Corpus Christi area due to the state of preparedness by its disaster prevention agencies.
After this, the name "CELIA" was retired from the Atlantic Hurricane Name List.
EASTERN PACIFIC CELIA
The Eastern Pacific has also used the name "CELIA" but they continue to use it since although it has been used for 5 times (including this year), no system named "CELIA" has made landfall in the Mexican or Centro-American coast. After all, it looks like the name will be used again for another time in 2010.
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1980"
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1986"
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1992"
"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 1998"
"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 2004" ( SO FAR )
![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2004/CELIA/track.gif)
The Atlantic Ocean used the name "Celia" three times, 1962, 1966, & for the last time in 1970.
"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 1962"
![Image](http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at196203.gif)
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1966"
![Image](http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at196603.gif)
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1970"
![Image](http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/images/at197003.gif)
Hurricane Celia, 1970: Hurricane Celia was one of the most destructive storms to ever hit Texas, with damages estimated at $1.6 billion (in 1990 dollars). Celia became a hurricane on August 1 in the Gulf of Mexlco and intensified rapidly in 15 hours before it crossed the coast north of Corpus Christi. As it moved over land, spectacular damage occurred from a "cluster of high energy winds of short duration," (also called downbursts or microbursts).
The extreme winds raked across the residential and business areas in less than half an hour. It was estimated that winds reached as high as 160 mph for several seconds. During those disastrous seconds, incredible damage occurred at the airport and an adjacent mobile home park which was completely demolished. Fortunately, only 11 died in the Corpus Christi area due to the state of preparedness by its disaster prevention agencies.
After this, the name "CELIA" was retired from the Atlantic Hurricane Name List.
EASTERN PACIFIC CELIA
The Eastern Pacific has also used the name "CELIA" but they continue to use it since although it has been used for 5 times (including this year), no system named "CELIA" has made landfall in the Mexican or Centro-American coast. After all, it looks like the name will be used again for another time in 2010.
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1980"
![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1980/CELIA/track.gif)
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1986"
![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1986/CELIA/track.gif)
"HURRICANE CELIA, 1992"
![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1992/CELIA/track.gif)
"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 1998"
![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/1998/CELIA/track.gif)
"TROPICAL STORM CELIA, 2004" ( SO FAR )
![Image](http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2004/CELIA/track.gif)
0 likes
- senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Code: Select all
426
WHXX04 KWBC 200528
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CELIA 04E
INITIAL TIME 0Z JUL 20
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 15.0 116.3 285./ 7.0
6 15.0 116.8 274./ 5.1
12 15.1 117.7 275./ 8.3
18 15.4 118.2 302./ 6.3
24 15.9 119.1 297./ 9.5
30 16.0 119.8 277./ 7.3
36 16.3 120.5 298./ 6.9
42 16.5 121.2 284./ 7.7
48 16.9 122.1 295./ 9.4
54 17.1 122.8 286./ 7.2
60 17.5 123.8 290./ 9.8
66 17.7 124.7 286./ 9.1
72 18.1 125.7 292./ 9.8
78 18.2 126.8 277./10.6
84 18.4 127.7 278./ 8.8
90 18.6 128.6 285./ 9.2
96 18.8 129.6 279./ 8.8
102 18.9 130.6 278./ 9.7
108 19.2 131.6 285./10.6
114 19.5 132.7 287./10.5
120 19.8 133.7 282./ 9.4
126 19.8 134.7 274./ 9.2
0 likes
- senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Code: Select all
950
WHXX01 KMIA 200646
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL STORM CELIA (EP042004) ON 20040720 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040720 0600 040720 1800 040721 0600 040721 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 116.9W 15.7N 118.7W 16.2N 120.4W 16.8N 122.1W
BAMM 15.2N 116.9W 15.7N 118.8W 16.1N 120.6W 16.6N 122.6W
LBAR 15.2N 116.9W 15.6N 118.5W 16.2N 120.5W 16.8N 122.7W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 60KTS 63KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 60KTS 63KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040722 0600 040723 0600 040724 0600 040725 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 123.9W 18.7N 127.4W 19.7N 130.9W 21.1N 133.6W
BAMM 17.1N 124.6W 18.2N 128.9W 18.9N 133.5W 19.7N 138.0W
LBAR 17.4N 125.0W 18.4N 130.0W 18.7N 135.1W 15.1N 136.9W
SHIP 62KTS 54KTS 44KTS 34KTS
DSHP 62KTS 54KTS 44KTS 34KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 116.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 115.7W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 114.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 70NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 70NM
0 likes
- chadtm80
- Category 5
- Posts: 20381
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 8:35 am
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Celia
I know everyone is realy interested in the carib system and I am as well.. But she dosent appear to be doing anything real quickly so lets take a look at Celia
Loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia System Track page
Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia's Forecast Advisory page
Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia's Discussion page
![down arrow :darrow:](./images/smilies/icon_arrowd.gif)
![Image](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg)
Loop
![right arrow :rarrow:](./images/smilies/icon_arrow.gif)
Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia System Track page
Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia's Forecast Advisory page
Click Here For Storm2k's Tropical Storm Celia's Discussion page
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139173
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Tropical storm Celia almost a hurricane 60kts,70 mph
TROPICAL STORM CELIA (EP042004) ON 20040721 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040721 1800 040722 0600 040722 1800 040723 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 120.6W 16.6N 121.9W 17.1N 123.3W 17.7N 124.7W
BAMM 16.2N 120.6W 16.8N 121.9W 17.2N 123.4W 17.8N 124.9W
LBAR 16.2N 120.6W 16.5N 122.0W 17.1N 123.5W 17.8N 125.3W
SHIP 60KTS 66KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 66KTS 67KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040723 1800 040724 1800 040725 1800 040726 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 126.2W 20.1N 129.7W 21.6N 133.3W 22.4N 136.4W
BAMM 18.3N 126.7W 19.6N 130.7W 20.6N 134.8W 21.0N 139.0W
LBAR 18.4N 127.1W 19.9N 131.2W 21.6N 135.8W 24.2N 139.4W
SHIP 58KTS 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS
DSHP 58KTS 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 120.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 119.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 118.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
The models initial wind profile at the 18:00 UTC run goes up to 60kts.The storm looks better this afternoon on sat pics.
![Image](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg)
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040721 1800 040722 0600 040722 1800 040723 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 120.6W 16.6N 121.9W 17.1N 123.3W 17.7N 124.7W
BAMM 16.2N 120.6W 16.8N 121.9W 17.2N 123.4W 17.8N 124.9W
LBAR 16.2N 120.6W 16.5N 122.0W 17.1N 123.5W 17.8N 125.3W
SHIP 60KTS 66KTS 67KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 66KTS 67KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040723 1800 040724 1800 040725 1800 040726 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 126.2W 20.1N 129.7W 21.6N 133.3W 22.4N 136.4W
BAMM 18.3N 126.7W 19.6N 130.7W 20.6N 134.8W 21.0N 139.0W
LBAR 18.4N 127.1W 19.9N 131.2W 21.6N 135.8W 24.2N 139.4W
SHIP 58KTS 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS
DSHP 58KTS 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 120.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 119.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 118.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
The models initial wind profile at the 18:00 UTC run goes up to 60kts.The storm looks better this afternoon on sat pics.
![Image](http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg)
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jul 21, 2004 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
My final forecast for Celia...
I hereby forecast my final for Celia. I am now forecasting 75 mph as a peak.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
- senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
HR Celia 22/06Z Models...
HR Celia (04E)
22/06Z
16.4N 121.6W
W @ 7 mph
80 mph
985 mb / 29.09"
22/06Z
16.4N 121.6W
W @ 7 mph
80 mph
985 mb / 29.09"
Code: Select all
107
WHXX01 KMIA 220655
CHGE77
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
HURRICANE CELIA (EP042004) ON 20040722 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040722 0600 040722 1800 040723 0600 040723 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 121.6W 16.6N 122.9W 17.0N 124.3W 17.5N 125.8W
BAMM 16.4N 121.6W 16.7N 123.0W 17.1N 124.2W 17.5N 125.8W
LBAR 16.4N 121.6W 16.7N 122.9W 17.2N 124.5W 17.7N 126.3W
SHIP 70KTS 73KTS 71KTS 64KTS
DSHP 70KTS 73KTS 71KTS 64KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040724 0600 040725 0600 040726 0600 040727 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 127.4W 20.5N 130.8W 22.7N 134.5W 25.4N 138.6W
BAMM 18.2N 127.6W 20.0N 130.9W 21.4N 134.6W 22.8N 139.0W
LBAR 18.3N 128.3W 20.2N 132.7W 22.4N 137.7W 26.8N 142.1W
SHIP 57KTS 43KTS 33KTS 25KTS
DSHP 57KTS 43KTS 33KTS 25KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 121.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 120.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 119.3W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 985MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 19 guests