Invest 97L (Model data, graphics, recon, etc.)

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #1 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:16 am

Well... the models seem to be honking at development. We shall see...

158 
WHXX01 KWBC 190653
CHGHUR

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

    .....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20040719  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040719  0600   040719  1800   040720  0600   040720  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.0N  52.9W   11.7N  56.2W   12.7N  59.2W   13.9N  61.8W
  BAMM    11.0N  52.9W   11.8N  57.0W   12.9N  60.6W   14.1N  63.8W
  A98E    11.0N  52.9W   11.4N  57.0W   11.9N  60.7W   12.2N  63.9W
  LBAR    11.0N  52.9W   11.6N  56.7W   12.6N  60.5W   13.6N  64.4W
  SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          47KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040721  0600   040722  0600   040723  0600   040724  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    15.0N  63.8W   16.4N  66.6W   17.8N  69.4W   19.7N  72.1W
  BAMM    15.1N  66.2W   16.3N  69.6W   17.5N  72.1W   19.6N  74.4W
  A98E    12.5N  66.6W   13.2N  70.7W   13.9N  74.2W   15.4N  78.2W
  LBAR    14.3N  67.7W   15.2N  72.7W   15.6N  75.5W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        54KTS          64KTS          74KTS          84KTS
  DSHP        54KTS          64KTS          74KTS          75KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  11.0N LONCUR =  52.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
  LATM12 =  10.8N LONM12 =  48.6W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
  LATM24 =  10.6N LONM24 =  44.3W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =    0NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

  .....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:51 am

Just remember not to take the current SHIPS intensity forecast too seriously. The intensity forecast is used mainly for systems that are at least tropical storm strength. The forecast for strengthening is better than nothing though. I'm going to be posting a detailed discussion later this morning.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:57 am

Just uploaded the first model map...

http://independentwx.com/AL972004.png

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #4 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:07 am

Good stuff... thanks

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:09 am

Wording changing in the TWO as expected...

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on July 19, 2004

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Cloudiness and a few showers currently spreading over portions of
the Lesser Antilles are associated with a westward-moving tropical
wave in the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea. Development of this
system is not expected.

Cloudiness and showers associated with another tropical wave...
located about 400 miles to the east of the southern Windward
Islands...have become better organized overnight. This system has
some potential for further development as it moves westward near 25
mph...and is expected to bring squally weather to portions of the
southern Lesser Antilles during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.

Forecaster Pasch
$$

Aquawind · #6 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:14 am

SHIPS is intensity is always wacked..but 84kts! Geesh that is a strengthening trend alrighty..Thats a Hmmm as well..

Matthew5 · #7 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:24 am

It looks like it is developing a upper level high! Cimss shows it!!! :eek:

84 knots is possible but not likely.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 6:26 am

Matthew5 wrote:It looks like it is developing a upper level high! Cimss shows it!!! 84 knots is possible but not likely.

Upper level ridging is in place.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #9 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:10 am

Code: Select all

725 
WHXX01 KWBC 191250
CHGHUR

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

    .....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20040719  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040719  1200   040720  0000   040720  1200   040721  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.3N  55.0W   12.1N  58.7W   13.0N  61.9W   14.1N  64.7W
  BAMM    11.3N  55.0W   12.4N  58.9W   13.6N  62.5W   14.9N  65.5W
  A98E    11.3N  55.0W   11.7N  59.1W   12.4N  62.7W   13.1N  65.8W
  LBAR    11.3N  55.0W   12.1N  59.1W   13.1N  63.1W   14.1N  66.8W
  SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          38KTS          45KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040721  1200   040722  1200   040723  1200   040724  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.8N  67.0W   15.3N  70.9W   16.2N  74.9W   17.6N  79.1W
  BAMM    15.8N  67.8W   16.8N  70.8W   18.0N  73.3W   19.7N  75.4W
  A98E    13.5N  68.3W   14.8N  72.2W   15.8N  75.4W   17.8N  78.9W
  LBAR    14.9N  70.2W   16.3N  75.7W   16.9N  79.1W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        52KTS          63KTS          74KTS          82KTS
  DSHP        52KTS          63KTS          74KTS          63KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  11.3N LONCUR =  55.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
  LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  50.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  21KT
  LATM24 =  10.6N LONM24 =  44.4W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  100NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

  .....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

kevin · #10 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:40 am

We have seen this before. 25mph is much too fast for a wave to move and develop. Any LLC will be left behind as the wave rushes forward.

Any examples to the contrary?

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 8:56 am

If I remember correctly Hurricane Opal was moving at 22 mph at landfall. She certainly did not leave her eye behind. Of course she was a well developed and vertically stacked system at that time. That is a big difference.

Steve H. · #12 Postby **Steve H.** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:04 am

Who is the one who makes the phone call to get the Floater moved!!!!! 8-)

kevin · #13 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:05 am

Exactly vb. Developing a consistent LLC seems to be nearly impossible for fast movers. Now if the wave slows down in the caribbean then we might have a player.

#14 Postby **hurricanemike** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:07 am

FROM 0805 AM TWD:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500/550 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 17N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH MID LEVEL TURNING. THIS WAVE
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

-------------------------------------------------

0445 AM SAN JUAN,PR DSC:

ADDITIONALLY BOTH GFS AND
SHIPS MODELS INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM RATHER AGGRESSIVELY AND BEARS WATCHING AS STEERING FLOW MAY VERY WELL BRING A BIG BULK OF THE LLVL
MOISTURE ACROSS P.R. AND INTO THE DOM REP. STLT PICS THIS MORNING SUGGEST BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE WAVE OVERNIGHT...AND TPC RUNNING HURRICANE GUIDANCE ATTM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

#15 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:07 am

Steve H. wrote:Who is the one who makes the phone call to get the Floater moved!!!!!

That would be Dixiebreze. Get to it Dixie! :lol:

#16 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:08 am

vbhoutex wrote:If I remember correctly Hurricane Opal was moving at 22 mph at landfall. She certainly did not leave her eye behind. Of course she was a well developed and vertically stacked system at that time. That is a big difference.

Yep...good point David...with a verticaly lined up system the forward speed doesnt matter. Often times we see systems with different flow speeds between the surface and the mid levels...but in this case everything seems to be lined up.

The thing to watch is whether or not the fast forward motion will cancel out what would otherwise be a west wind on the bottom half of the system.

Looks like banding is improving. No way to get recon out there before this starts affecting the islands...unless there is a resources-permitting flight available.

MW

rbaker · #17 Postby **rbaker** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:21 am

in this part of the w atlantic it's not to uncommon to see waves moving at 25kts. I agree for this thing to hold together it would need to slow down a bit and probably be at least a td before it reaches the islands. If not, I predict it will not become a td until it reaches the western caribbean, climitology wise.

kevin · #18 Postby **kevin** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 9:24 am

Looks like it will begin to effect the lower islands in the next 12 hours.

#19 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:14 am

Will easily be affecting the islands within the next 12 hours at the rate it is moving. Not going to be as a TD imo. Even though there appears to be some banding trying to set up the latest quikscat shows us clearly that there is nothing at the surface.

This is not to say it won't become something, but I think we are going to be waiting several more days if it does become anything. It will be running into dryer air at all levels that is still present in the E Carribean.

Weatherboy1 · #20 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:57 am

I would bet that as this thing gets more to the W or WNW, its forward speed will slow. Reason: it will be getting closer and closer to the W extent of the ridge due to the E Coast trof. The only way it could avoid slowing down, in my opinion, would be for it to stay at an extremely low latitude since (I believe) there is a ridge sandwiched between the trof and the disturbance's location.

As for this not being a TD, well, I'd agree that NOW it is not ... but I think its chances of becoming one are fairly good. Its satellite presentation continues to improve, and as I mentioned, it will likely slow down and start heading more WNW than W. Should it just keep plowing to the W at 25 mph, though, it will likely tangle with South America and/or the SE Carib "dead zone" for development.

All in all, I'd give it a 50/50 chance of becoming our first TD.

Invest 97L (Model data, graphics, recon, etc.)

Invest 97L (Model data, graphics, recon, etc.)

moving fast

forward speed to slow?

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