Blas Advisories
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- cycloneye
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This will be TS Blas but will it be a hurricane before it reaches cooler waters?.
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- cycloneye
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif
The MJO occillation factor has been in the EPAC for 2 weeks and now the real effects of it are being felt and in response activity has risen big time.
The MJO occillation factor has been in the EPAC for 2 weeks and now the real effects of it are being felt and in response activity has risen big time.
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TD 3E flat???
It seems to be somewhat flat on the west side of the system. Infact, I may lower my forecast depending on what happens tonight. 80 mph in 48 hrs is still my forecast. If the west side fans out, I expect a stronger system.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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- cycloneye
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2.5 on TD3-E Tropical storm Blas forms
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
Ummm interesting the rise of the estimates of the winds to 2.5 35 kts after an outflow boundary came out earlier this afternoon.It well be reorganizing rapidly as deep convection is trying to wrap around the center and has the look of a tropical storm now so Blas has borned .See chart below that shows the wind profile of every T number.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
Ummm interesting the rise of the estimates of the winds to 2.5 35 kts after an outflow boundary came out earlier this afternoon.It well be reorganizing rapidly as deep convection is trying to wrap around the center and has the look of a tropical storm now so Blas has borned .See chart below that shows the wind profile of every T number.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:05 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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- CaluWxBill
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Supercane wrote:TS Blas is official, per 0Z SHIPS.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071300
Great so what will the next one be called hehe.
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- cycloneye
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Ok Rob thanks for bringing that news of the formation of the second tropical storm of the EPAC this season.
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Official BLas is Here
Tropical Storm BLAS
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Home Forecast/Advisory Discussion Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130225
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE
WELL-DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE 2.5 WHICH SUPPORTS 35
KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO
THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. CONTINUED
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LA
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
TIME OVER WARM WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. BLAS IS LIKELY TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. THE MAIN ISSUE REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE GLOBAL
MODELS' DEPICTION OF ANOTHER VORTEX TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BLAS.
THIS SECONDARY VORTEX...IF IT EXISTS...APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN
THE MODELS' INITIALIZATION. IF THAT IS TRUE THEN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MAY BE INFLUENCED BY AN ARTIFICIAL FUJIWHARA-TYPE
INTERACTION WITH THE SECONDARY VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT BLAS IS A
LARGER-THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 120 N MI WIND RADII MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.8N 108.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.6N 112.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.0N 116.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Forecast/Advisory Discussion Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 130225
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE
WELL-DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE 2.5 WHICH SUPPORTS 35
KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO
THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. CONTINUED
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LA
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
TIME OVER WARM WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. BLAS IS LIKELY TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE. THE MAIN ISSUE REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE GLOBAL
MODELS' DEPICTION OF ANOTHER VORTEX TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BLAS.
THIS SECONDARY VORTEX...IF IT EXISTS...APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN
THE MODELS' INITIALIZATION. IF THAT IS TRUE THEN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MAY BE INFLUENCED BY AN ARTIFICIAL FUJIWHARA-TYPE
INTERACTION WITH THE SECONDARY VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT BLAS IS A
LARGER-THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 120 N MI WIND RADII MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.8N 108.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.6N 112.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.0N 116.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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My apology for double posting....E PAC alive
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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CaluWxBill wrote:Supercane wrote:TS Blas is official, per 0Z SHIPS.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04071300
Great so what will the next one be called hehe.
The next name on the EPAC list is Celia.
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Blas forecast
http://www.nwhhc.com/epac032004forecast.html
passing south of cabo, though may be close enough to bring some rain there
passing south of cabo, though may be close enough to bring some rain there
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- cycloneye
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Will Tropical Storm Blas reach hurricane status?
Yesterday I thought that it would not reach hurricane status because it was not well organized but the overnight organization has been very rapid and now I believe it will make it although a close call but for a short period as cooler waters will begin to weaken it.
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