Update of MJO at EPAC and Atlantic / Update On Sal Atlantic

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

For those who not are familiar with what the MJO or the (MADDEN JULIEN OCCILLATION is read info at link below.

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

In the first link above it shows those green lines which mean favorableMJO moving eastward from the WPAC into the central pacific and into the EPAC which indicates that it will heat up in the EPAC very soon as the negative phase of the MJO spills into that basin and will make things more favorable for development and pure coinsidence there are a couple of disturbances right now at the EPAC that will have a chance to develop.About the Atlantic still zzzzzzzz as another thread said in the forum but as this occillation enters the Atlantic things will begin to heat up soon.

[cycloneye]

The latest update shows the MJO reaching the EPAC as those green lines move eastward thru the pacific.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

[cycloneye]

The latest update of MJO indicates that the leading edge of it has entered the western gulf and then it will spread eastward thru the caribbean sea,the western atlantic and the tropical atlantic but the effects take some time to then see more favorable conditions for tropical development however IMO things will begin to heat up by mid to late july as this mjo factor has a more big effect by then so hang there folks and fasten your seatbelts because very soon the quiet Atlantic will be nomore.

[Aquawind]

Thanks for the updates Cycloneye. Nice to have you posting again.

[cycloneye]

Thanks for the updates Cycloneye. Nice to have you posting again.

Thank you Aqua.

[cycloneye]

The updated data shows that the MJO is in the Atlantic basin as the green lines at link above shows.But it's effects are not felt rapidly however conditions will slowly be improving as the days go by and let's see what effects it has on the strong wave at the eastern atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Many may wonder why suddenly the atlantic from quiet has turned more active and the WPAC has turned quiet and here is the answer.The negative MJO or favorable conditions has completly spilled into the Atlantic as link above shows.

[Rainband]

Wahooo

[cycloneye]

What a change in the atlantic right Johnnathan from boring weeks to now.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

Update of the MJO today shows the green lines or negative MJO meaning favored conditions all over the basin but the real effects dont come rapidly as it is a slow proccess and in 1 or 2 weeks from now things will be more favorable as the effects from the MJO will be more prominent.

[Amanzi]

Thanks for the update Luis. Hopefully something will get cranking soon.

[Rainband]

What a change in the atlantic right Johnnathan from boring weeks to now.

Yep. It's going to start to get very intersting soon

[cycloneye]

The african train looks like august and september and not early july.Are we poised to see a very active CV season? And after this MJO pulse goes from the atlantic inlate july then by mid to late august it will be back and by then we will witness a very active peak of the season.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

The update of the MJO july 9 shows that the negative phase is in the atlantic now for a full week.Now let's see if something brews in this period before the mjo exits the atlantic but so far this week with the mjo nothing has formed into a tropical depression.

[cycloneye]

Update of MJO on july 11 shows that in the EPAC it still is hanging there and because it has been for more than 2 weeks the activity there has picked up as the real effects are felt more 2 weeks later.

In the atlantic the MJO is confined to the central and eastern atlantic however another pulse will spill into the atlantic in comming days from the EPAC but for the most part it has been in this basin for almost 2 weeks the effects are felted in the enviroment later on meaning that by next week and in the last week of july the maximun effects from this factor should be felt in the atlantic and the activity has to pick up.But by then other factors will play a roll about increased activity in the atlantic in the last 2 weeks of july in those are present such as the SAL and the TUTT so no matter if the MJO is in the atlantic for 3 weeks if other factors are not favorable then nothing develops.A system can develop without MJO but it has a harder time to develop.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

The update of MJO shows the atlantic now without the green lines meaning less favorable conditions and that is why you are seeing inactivty in the basin now.But in the EPAC the negative or favorable MJO with the green lines at the grafic shows that it is in full force and that is why Blas formed in recent days since that negative phase has been for more time in that basin.Now what we have to watch is for that piece of green lines to spill into the atlantic to make conditions better by the last week of this month but time will tell if other factors will kick in and make things not favorable even with the MJO in favor.

[chadtm80]

Its that **#*$#)(*%)($ SAL that is what realy needs to clear out

[cycloneye]

Its that **#*$#)(*%)($ SAL that is what realy needs to clear out

I hear you !!!!!

[Steve H.]

But look at the WV of the East Atlantic today; looks like its moistening up. The Dundee site shows it well, as well as the impulse that came off the continent.

[chadtm80]

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