The Case Against Florida - Is Florida Doomed?

[wxman57]

I put together a great deal of info on hurricane climatology vs. various regimes of NAO, PDO, and Atlantic SST regimes on the following page:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

Take a look and see why you might not want to consider retiring to Florida in the near future.

[HURAKAN]

Great site, just incredible.

Sandy Delgado

[Steve H.]

Now that is interesting data wx57!! Thanks for the info. And damn, I just put up a new fence! If the cooler scenario holds and results in a further west Bermuda high, one of those bowling balls could cross the peninsula - maybe more. A good reality check; Florida is not protected by a dome - nor the gulfstream as some sceptics think

[Anonymous]

Wonderful job on this research.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Excellent research. An eye opener, to say the least!

Praying for rain, just rain.

[Storm Man]

Great Job!! You Did Your Home Work! Thanks!

[bahamaswx]

Interesting read, good job.

doesn't hold well for the bahamas either

[Stormsfury]

Great research, Chris, and a great writeup ... During the cold regime, only ONE major storm hit Florida, and that was Andrew ... Opal hit Pensacola with the beginnings of the strong than normal ATL thermaline circulation, and hence, the much above activity in 1995 (which has continued since) ...

And with the datasets suggesting a switch to a more favorable overall pattern, with the increased activity of tropical cyclone occurrence in the ATL (which will probably last another 2-3 decades), Florida's luck is running out.

What scares me most is the complacency of the residents of Florida, ESPECIALLY after the evacuations that ensued during Floyd. Aside from the people that went through Hurricane Andrew in 1992, what about other locations, like Tampa-St. Pete., and Jacksonville, Daytona Beach, and those locations which have generally escaped major hurricanes for great number of years...

I definitely agree that a major hurricane hitting (doesn't have to be as strong as Andrew) an even larger population center could easily rake up damage totals TWICE, THREE, possibly even FOUR times more than Andrew ... (had Andrew hit 50-100 miles further north, the damage would have likely been close to $100 BILLION) ...

SF

[Stephanie]

EXCELLENT WXMAN!! It almost makes "The Day After Tomorrow" look like a premonition (though I didn't see the movie).

The Bermuda High coming further west also indicates to me that we're going to be for quite a few hot and steamy summers in the EC as well.

[Rainband]

Great Job Chris. Mike..thats true the amount of damge to life and property would be insane if a Major cane hit the west coast in a populated area Time will tell if Floridas West coast escapes another year!! or not:eek:

[Anonymous]

Good job and very interresting... Looks like more than likely our luck may run out sooner than later

[hial2]

Wasn't Andrew supposed to be a hurricane of a lifetime??

BTW, is anyone else armed for self/property defense in the aftermath of a catastrophic hurricane? Nothing wrong with stocking up with water and canned goods, ....but your life or those you love may depend on your Glock!!

[Anonymous]

Is the Bermuda High strength a cycle that will happen little by little every year until Fla is under the gun or will it just one year suddenly be strong and have canes coming further west? Was this what brought the trio of scares to fla (dennis, Floyd, Irene)-all three storms tracks were within 5 degrees east of fla and nearly paralleled each other...like they were going around the High.

[BEER980]

hial2 I am sufficiently armed but it does not include a Glock. I have other namebrands.

[JPmia]

wxman57 - Thanks for this discussion!! That is exactly what I was looking for in a previous post. You could make a brochure out of that...lol.

[JPmia]

Btw, where can we find Dr. Landsea's research mentioned in your discussion?

[JPmia]

Never mind...found it here:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Goldenberg/science01.pdf

[obxhurricane]

You guys in Florida are still waiting for Isabel aren't you?

Just kidding, just kidding.

[Amanzi]

Ok.. Now Im scared

Great research and an excellent read!!! Thanks.

[Aquawind]

Awesome job of putting that together..It seems pretty obvious things have changed along the east coast this year..I have my doubts the el nino will be creating a SW flow and doing any protecting this year..

I like the simple facts and simple conclusion..Historical SST data seems fairly reliable to me versus observations from untrained eyes..

Funny thing NAO and PDO both are not listed on the Tropical Prediction Center site Acronyms or Glossary lists..