FXUS64 KHGX 300936
AFDHOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004
.DISCUSSION...
HUMID NIGHT ON HAND WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SETX IN THE 74-77 DEGREE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AT 09Z. STEADY SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH CONTINUE UNDER THE EXPANSIVE MVFR CLOUD DECK. LARGE LATE SPRING STORM SYSTEM RIPPING THROUGH THE PLAINS HAS BEEN SOURCE OF NUMEROUS TORNADOES/SEVERE REPORTS...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP INTO EAST TEXAS TONIGHT CARRYING THE DRYLINE EAST INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS FROM FTW/ETA/GFS INDICATE A BREAKABLE CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE AS FAR SOUTH AS AUS TO NEAR 11R LINE DURING PEAK HEATING. WIND PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS EAST WITH TIME. WILL BE CARRYING 40 POPS NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO 10 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE COAST WHERE STRONG CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. FORECAST CAPE OF 2500-4000J/KG SEEM REASONABLE ESPECIALLY IF TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE MID 90S. WILL BE FORECASTING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS I AM EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF TRAPPED CLOUD COVER WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LARGE CAP. CAN'T RULE OUT TORNADOES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN NW ZONES BUT THINK THE GREATER LIKELYHOOD WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MENTION SEVERE FOR NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN A LITTLE MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. MAY GET SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE DRYLINE. RICH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY MONDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO
LESSENING OF PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-STRENGTHENING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WAFFLING AROUND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS/AR/NRN LA DURING THIS PERIOD AND MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS WHICH MAY TRACK INTO THE AREA IF THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIG BACK FAR ENOUGH WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THOUGH THE UPPER STEERING
CURRENTS WOULD BE WEAK.
Hey, as long as I can smoke my brisket tomorrow, I'm cool with it. Chasing possibilities are limited for me seeing as the A/C went out in the truck yesterday and won't be fixed until next weekend.
