Discussion and Outlook - Historic Severe Weather Outbreak

[beam182]

I usually don't put out an outlook unless there's a high risk in my area, but judging by the probabilistics, it's going to be a hell of a night regardless. (Besides, most of MO will probably see a high risk by the 0100Z outlook.)

Today looks to be one of the historic "Super Outbreaks", as heat and moisture from the gulf CONTINUE to feed into the great plains. Three tornado watches have been issued as storms are beginning to develop in Kansas, and will continue to develop further north and south into OK and extreme northeast TX, as well as NE, IA, SD, and MN. Storms will congeal into a destructive and incredibly large complex of tornadic supercells and severe thunderstorms and move east into sunday. Storms were forecast to weaken overnight as heat from the sun began to diminish, but increased jet flow in central and eastern MO and eastern IA should help sustain the strength of the storms.

There is a high likelihood of violent, long-track tornadoes with winds up to and possibly exceeding 200-300MPH, as well as extremely large hail and highly damaging straight-line winds of up to or over 120MPH across the plains from around 4PM CDT today, to 9AM CDT tomorrow. Flooding rains are also possible, but not as likely since the storms will be relatively fast movers.

Around 7 to 9 PM, storms will enter MO. They will affect the KC area from around 8-10 PM. Then they will track eastward overnight through MO and southern IA from 10PM on into the wee hours, and perhaps strike western IL around dawn Sunday morning, before moving out of the central Plains later in the day on Sunday, carrying the main outbreak into IL, IA, OH, KY, TN, and western parts of WV, VA, and NC. A smaller threat will also exist in the central atlantic states on Monday.

Returning to the short-term, all people in southwest Iowa, Missouri, and east Kansas should keep a very close eye on the situation, as it will likely be the largest outbreak in years.

This is way beyond a particularly dangerous situation, and must not be taken lightly by any stretch of the imagination.

In MO and southern IA, start getting ready now. If you are celebrating the holiday weekend with friends and family, make them aware of the situation and make sure they all know what to do if severe weather threatens your area. Don't wait. Prepare now.

All sources are pointing to this one being a nearly surreal outbreak, with the NWS providing free weather radios to the elderly, broadcast stations across the midwest ALREADY preparing for extended periods of severe weather coverage, and the weather channel going so far as to make the notify service free during this holiday weekend.

I said Monday was the big one for the year. I was wrong. This is the big one for the year. Hell, it might be the big one for years to come. I'm heading out in my van with some equipment in about an hour or so to track these storms firsthand as they come into MO and advance through the state. This could become a dangerous situation, so wish me safety.

-Beam

[simplykristi]

Are you heading into KC? If so, stay safe as you chase!

Kristi

[Pebbles]

Stay safe hun *huggers*

[Stephanie]

Be careful Beam!

[shaner]

Please stay safe. I can't imagine living in such a hazardous weather area like you folks do.

[Stormsfury]

Please stay safe. I can't imagine living in such a hazardous weather area like you folks do.

Ontario had some rough weather just recently also, if I recall right, with severe weather and a few strong tornadoes...

Otherwise, this potential outbreak could potential rival the outbreak earlier this year and again, I wouldn't rule out a couple of F4's. Once the dryline becomes completely organized (and it's doing so now), look out. And areas further upstream ... don't let your guard down as well especially during the overnight hours as this will probably evolve into a large MCS capable of producing widespread severe weather (primarily straight line winds, some marginally large hail, and a few tornadoes)...and I don't expect the MCS to weaken until possibly towards daybreak tomorrow.

SF

[USAwx1]

Please stay safe. I can't imagine living in such a hazardous weather area like you folks do.

Ontario had some rough weather just recently also, if I recall right, with severe weather and a few strong tornadoes...

Otherwise, this potential outbreak could potential rival the outbreak earlier this year and again, I wouldn't rule out a couple of F4's. Once the dryline becomes completely organized (and it's doing so now), look out. And areas further upstream ... don't let your guard down as well especially during the overnight hours as this will probably evolve into a large MCS capable of producing widespread severe weather (primarily straight line winds, some marginally large hail, and a few tornadoes)...and I don't expect the MCS to weaken until possibly towards daybreak tomorrow.

SF

MCS driven by isentropic ascent associated with and fed by the strong LLJ as it shifts Eastward. Some of the ohio valley MODERATE RISK area will probably (or should be, at least IMO) upgraded to a HIGH RISK for tomorrow.

Especially considering all the outflow boundaries from todays episode will be sitting around, providing a focus for convective initiation once again, in addition to whatever may be ongoing.

[shaner]

Please stay safe. I can't imagine living in such a hazardous weather area like you folks do.

Ontario had some rough weather just recently also, if I recall right, with severe weather and a few strong tornadoes...

Yes we did last Saturday. 3 Tornadoes, all short lived. An F2 and 2 F0's. Nothing to sneeze at, but certainly not the type of weather Oklahomans live with everyday at this time of the year.